A woman, carrying her daughter, casts her vote at a polling station. (REUTERS)
If the BJP appears more vulnerable than its earlier predictions suggested,it is not merely because of voter apathy and lower turnout. The party has assessed that there was a discernible drop in worker enthusiasm in the first two rounds of voting. BJP workers, largely drawn from the RSS cadres, are the all-important cog in the party machine who bring out the voters on election day. Many karyakartas are finding it hard to reconcile with the changing face of the BJP. “You cannot order us to blacken a corrupt Congress leader’s face one day and then turn around and ask us to campaign for him the next,” a BJP worker protested. Anger among rank-and-file loyalists has been building up. One grievance is that minor requests, including deserving postings, transfers etc, forwarded by the RSS to the government are usually ignored. This time the RSS had almost no say in the distribution of BJP tickets, a fact admitted by a senior RSS functionary when asked to intervene on behalf of Pramod Mahajan’s daughter and Mumbai North Central MP Poonam Mahajan, who was denied a ticket. The RSS’s embarrassed explanation to its flock is that Modi has done far more to fulfill the RSS agenda than any earlier party politician.
No One-Horse-Race
The replacing of popular sitting BJP MPs with political lightweights or turncoats is deeply resented by the rank and file. Actor Arun Govil who was parachuted as a BJP candidate in Meerut even hinted at internal sabotage after polling concluded last week. In Bareilly, UP, and Mysuru, Karnataka, MPs Santosh Gangwar and Pratap Simha are among several others who have been replaced, even though surveys suggested they would win handily. In Nanded, Maharashtra, where former Congress CM Ashok Chavan recently joined the BJP, a third of local party workers did not attend the PM’s rally. Defying party discipline, a Karnataka BJP leader admitted to the media that he had alerted his party seniors about Deve Gowda’s grandson Prajwal Revanna’s unsavoury reputation. There are those who go so far as to suspect that the continuing protests by Rajput groups in several states over Gujarat minister Parshottam Rupala’s controversial remark has secret encouragement from within their ranks. Pertinently, after the second round of voting, the satta market has re-assessed the BJP victory down to a mere 290 seats (the halfway mark is 272), indicating that the 2024 election is not a one-horse race as projected.
One-Man Show
A striking feature of the BJP’s 2024 election campaign is that it is focused entirely around the Prime Minister. The 2019 campaign was also Modi-centric but state satraps and even national leaders were also projected in the campaign. Popular BJP leaders such as Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje, Nitin Gadkari, Rajnath Singh, Sushil Modi, Devendra Fadnavis etc are missing from the election posters in their respective states.
Frantic Outreach
It is no coincidence that Modi’s hard-hitting speeches targeting the Muslim community began after the first round of voting. The speeches, scripted by the PM’s core team, were criticised for being unbecoming for a two-term PM and statesman with an important role on the world stage. It was assumed that the PM’s speeches were aimed at polarising Hindu voters, who might have been lulled into complacency, what with the media echoing the assessment of a one-horse race. Many believe Modi’s speeches were directed towards party workers. He wanted to make the point that despite forging alliances with questionable partners and inducting suspect individuals, he has not digressed from the RSS core ideology. His personalised letter to all BJP candidates, addressing them as “fellow karyakarta’’, is perceived as part of this outreach. Last month, while campaigning in Vidarbha, he stopped overnight at the RSS headquarters.
All-time low
Significantly, Modi has for the first time not set the terms of the campaign narrative. Rather, he has dredged stray remarks from the past by Congress leaders to spread fear and suspicion of the minority community. He has demolished some of Rahul Gandhi’s thoughtless comments.But the seasoned Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge’s caustic observation about the President Droupadi Murmu and former President Ram Nath Kovind not being invited to the Ram Mandir consecration struck a chord. As have WhatsApp messages sent out by hired social media influencers suggesting the BJP wants to amend the Constitution and do away with reservations. As the BJP engages in firefighting, some in the Opposition have even utilised fake morphed videos to further spread false rumours of reservations coming to an end. The 2024 campaign rhetoric has surely fallen to its lowest level ever.
