Supporters of BJP gather to greet Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during a roadshow in Varanasi. (Photo: AP)
Best-laid plans
As poet Robert Burns once cautioned, even the best-laid plans of mice and men can go awry. The PMO’s team had superbly conceived and choreographed the Ram temple consecration at Ayodhya to kick-start the 2024 BJP election campaign back in January. But it ignored some crucial pointers. The temple issue peaked far too early and there is a law of diminishing returns when you repeat the same emotive issue in each election. The EC has not helped the ruling party by stretching the election campaign over six weeks in the scorching summer sun and the harvest season.
A clear-cut election narrative is difficult to focus on over a span of many months. An intemperate cacophony of accusations and counter-accusations on social media concerning reservations or amending the Constitution have often diverted attention from the main issue the BJP wanted to project: comparing the PM’s towering image with other Opposition leaders.
New-found confidence
What appeared to be a certain victory earlier this year has, judging by the nervousness of politicians, institutions and the markets, is turning into a nail-biting finish closer to counting day. The halfway mark is 272. In 2019, the BJP won an amazing 303 seats. Together with its allies, the NDA had 353 MPs. The BJP, in fact, notched over 50% of the vote share in 224 Lok Sabha seats. Despite these odds, some optimists in Rahul Gandhi’s war room visualise a more rosy picture this time. For starters, their leader is no longer disparagingly referred to as “Pappu’’ by the electorate.
The Opposition’s new-found confidence is based partly on the fact that this time Modi minus Balakot does not appear quite so formidable. Particularly in the first phase of the campaign, it was practically a one-man show. Yogi Adityanath was one of the few exceptions to be inducted into the campaign. Surprisingly for a seasoned communicator, Modi has in this campaign been caught more than once on the back foot. What makes this election difficult to predict is that there is no discernible wave for or against the government in most parts of the country.
Theory of attrition
The Opposition is banking on what is termed as the “theory of attrition”. It believes the BJP is bound to face reversals since its high of 2019. This time, it reckons on the BJP to perform badly in Maharashtra and Karnataka. In 2019, the BJP won 25 seats in Karnataka and 23 seats Maharashtra. Apart from a loss in numbers in these states, there could be a marginal decline in seats in states like Rajasthan, Haryana, Punjab, UP and Bihar. The calculation is that the BJP cannot get a clear majority on its own and, besides, most of BJP’s formidable allies have exited the NDA.
Countering the “natural attrition” argument, BJP loyalists argue that any decline in seat-share in Maharashtra and Karnataka would be from the kitty of BJP allies and not from its own tally. Also, the losses in some states will be compensated by gains in others, such as Bengal and UP. Even diehard BJP loyalists admit privately that they do not bank on even four seats from Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The Opposition’s counter-argument is that the BJP’s expected gains from West Bengal, where it won 18 seats in 2019 are unlikely, what with major infighting between the BJP old-timers and turncoats from the Congress and TMC.
Maharashtra, the key
Maharashtra is the focus of much attention in this election. The state has 48 MPs and has often been described as the bellwether state in parliamentary polls. Strategically located between north and south, it has often proved to be an accurate barometer of voting patterns in the country as a whole. Maharashtra is a difficult state to analyse, with traditional alliances turned upside down in this election.The state is hit by agrarian distress, water shortages and a Maratha reservation agitation.
Sharad Pawar, normally a man of few words, sees a comparison between this campaign and the 2004 poll, when the BJP campaign theme was “India Shining” and the Vajpayee government was taken by total surprise when the results started coming in. But Team Modi is far less complacent than Pramod Mahajan, Vajpayee’s campaign manager. The BJP campaign has heeded early warning signals. For instance, the monotonous Modi guarantee ads have been slowly replaced by posters urging the electorate to come out and vote instead. The PM last week even denied ever playing the Hindu-Muslim card. Modi’s people prefer to compare 2024 with the 2012 Gujarat election campaign and last year’s MP Assembly campaign. In both cases, the BJP came from behind to win handily eventually.
