India-China ties: After the thaw, time for reset

Such fears hinge on the huge differential between the two countries in terms of an economy of China’s $18 trillion to India’s $3.93 trillion or the size and sophistication of its armed forces. But China has its own challenges, with a strong enmity or an uneasy relationship with its foremost neighbours and the United States (US), even as it faces strong headwinds on its thrust to invigorate its economy and in several fundamental areas that define comprehensive national power (CNP). It is also not generally acknowledged that while there is a disproportion gap in some areas between the two, India has begun to catch up in several critical areas. In addition, the potential to use imaginative strategies to deal with Beijing should be explored, should it persist in its threatening position.

Is China truly the towering power it claims to be? Up until Xi’s first term, China’s economic and military growth appeared to position it as a global superpower, poised to surpass the US. However, the Covid-19 pandemic has caused irreversible damage to China’s trajectory. According to the April 2024 International Monetary Fund report, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) stands at $28.78 trillion, while China’s GDP is $18.53 trillion, with the gap unlikely to close due to China’s economic slowdown. Additionally, the US continues to maintain its military dominance, although China has made significant strides in narrowing the gap. Notably, China also faces a demographic challenge, with an ageing population that affects both its military conscription and workforce morale. The lack of allies compared to the US further diminishes China’s global influence. While China may not surpass the US in the foreseeable future, it remains a formidable power.

In comparison to China, India may appear dwarfed by the sheer numbers, but it is far from a laggard. India is quickly rising in multiple domains, including diplomacy, information technology, military strength, and economic growth. When it comes to investment in artificial intelligence (AI), India’s $16 billion investment over the last five years pales in comparison to China’s $132 billion, but it places India on the global map alongside major players like the US and the United Kingdom (UK). In the field of autonomous weapons, a critical area of defence innovation, India is also a key player in the making.

India also ranks among the top five countries in patent filings between 2014 and 2023, with 1,350 patents. While China leads with 38,210 patents, India’s innovation ecosystem, bolstered by a large number of start-ups, indicates that this number is likely to grow exponentially. In terms of economic growth, India’s projected rate of 7% surpasses China’s 4.6%, further closing the gap between the two countries. India does still face significant asymmetries, and these need to be dealt with in the meantime. Even while research indices show China to be at the top in 37 out of 44 major technologies, countries like the UK and India are catching up fast, claiming a place in the top five.

India’s strategic challenges include Sino-Pak collusion, coupled with grey zone threats such as cyber warfare, disinformation campaigns, and support for insurgencies and terrorism. These threats are designed to exploit India’s internal vulnerabilities, including its diverse social fabric and regional fault lines. India must, in turn, consider strategies that exploit China’s weaknesses. For instance, China’s limited alliances present opportunities for India to counterbalance its regional dominance. China wields significant economic influence, particularly through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative. But India’s partnerships in forums such as Quad and its deepening ties with countries like Japan, Australia, and the US provide a counterbalance to Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

India’s strategy must also be ready to embrace the grey zone, as articulated by the ancient strategist Kautilya: “If intrigue and deception can secure national interest, then I would rather not go to war.” If the relationship deteriorates, India should build a capability to build on internal tensions between the mainland Han Chinese and ethnic minorities in Hong Kong, Tibet, and Xinjiang, the urban-rural divide, as well as potential fractures within the Communist Party and the People’s Liberation Army (PLA), offer further opportunities for strategic manoeuvring. By adopting a mix of overt diplomacy and grey zone tactics, India can delay a direct confrontation while building its CNP, taking a leaf from Deng Xiaoping’s philosophy of “hide your strength, bide your time”. In simple terms, while India cannot but acknowledge Chinese strengths, it is also vital to make a smart analysis of its weaknesses.

The future of India-China relations will be shaped by how India navigates the grey zone, strengthens its CNP, and maintains a balance of power in an increasingly multipolar world. Such strengthening could build a future of peace for both countries based on mutual respect.

Dushyant Singh, a lieutenant general (retired), is director general, Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS). The views expressed are personal

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