Jul 18, 2024 09:04 PM IST
India’s place is unique not only because it is populous but also because it will maintain this status till the end of this century
Anxieties over population size and the Earth’s carrying capacity have died down, given the signs of the global population tending towards stability (although there is potential for its growth for another 50-60 years). The global population is going to peak at 10.3 billion by the 2080s. This growth from the current count of 8.2 billion does not seem enormous, and it is expected that after attaining this peak, it will slowly stabilise around 10.2 billion at the end of the century. Although these trends are quite promising, the geography of this count, along with its composition, is going to pose a real challenge in the coming times. While 28% of global citizens are found in countries whose population count has already peaked, another 10% are in 48 countries where the population sizes are expected to attain their respective peaks between 2025 and 2054. The rest of the world, consisting of 126 countries, is likely to experience population growth till it attains national peaks only by the end of this century.
The trend towards population stabilisation is owing to the faster decline in fertility levels during the last three decades, starting in the 1990s. This period has witnessed the decline of the global total fertility rate (TFR) to 2.3 children per woman from 3.3. The global TFR decline has been accompanied by half the countries in the world reaching TFRs that are below the replacement level of fertility (2.1 children per woman). This transition is associated with the sharpest decline in early-age motherhood (maternal age 10-14 years) that now accounts for a meagre 3.8% of all premature-age (maternal age below 18 years) births. Besides shrinking fertility levels, longevity has touched an average of 73.3 years in 2024, an increase of 8.4 years since 1995. Longevity is going to rise, with the average reaching 77.4 years by 2050. Hence, the sustained growth of the population is largely due to the momentum created by growth in the past. In fact, the youth share in the population is expected to contribute to population growth till 2054, with an addition of 1.4 billion people worldwide.
Not only is this youth population contributing to sustaining population growth but also to boosting economic growth. This, of course, is the much-discussed demographic dividend. The increased concentration of population in working ages alongside declining fertility levels makes the demographic window of reaping the dividend narrower. The working age population of ages 20-64 is expected to grow in over 100 countries of the world till the mid of this century. This will need to be nurtured with the capability to reap the dividend. While this count is considered beneficial, a focus on health and education alone can catalyse the expected gains in real terms. The youthful age structure of the global population is the dividend of the past high fertility, and they would account for 79% of the population growth over the next 30 years, adding 1.4 billion to the global population.
Another crossover that is on the anvil is that of the older population (65+) outnumbering the child population (below 18 years). This will be realised by 2070. Given the intensity of the ageing process, the old getting older is more likely in this century in light of the continuous shrinking of the newborn count. In fact, globally, the 80+ population will outnumber infants by the turn of this decade. Such an imbalance calls for relooking at how the workforce is defined, beyond the convention on retirement age and extending working years to accommodate the “old” with re-training and re-skilling.
The emerging imbalance in the evolving age structure renders the populations of a select set of countries unsustainable, and this calls for replenishment of the population in the productive ages. In this regard, for about 50 nations, immigration alone would serve future growth. This is particularly true for countries experiencing ultra-low fertility levels.
Given this global population prospect, India’s place is unique not only because it is populous but also because it will maintain this status till the end of this century. India’s sustained population growth will make the global share of Indians grow over time. Hence, the country might serve the sustenance of the population in many other countries through the immigration of its young to the deficit regions. It is clear from this outlook on the population trajectory that future population composition and distribution is going to be largely dependent on migration more than basic determinants such as longevity and reproduction. However, demographic imbalance in the population structure threatens its sustainability, which perhaps would make global citizenship a reality, against contemporary strands of nationalism and their implied citizenship ethos. India’s “population billionaire” status can undoubtedly strengthen its position across the globe, provided its youth count is made comparable in all qualitative terms with the youth elsewhere in the world. Therefore, a strategic approach for converting India’s population advantage into real gains on the global scene is the need of the hour.
S Irudaya Rajan is chair, and US Mishra is honorary visiting professor, the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD), Kerala. The views expressed are personal
Story Saved
