India 10-year bond yield posts steepest weekly fall in 4 months on US rate bets

MUMBAI, Sept 13 – Indian government bond yields ended lower on Friday, with the 10-year benchmark yield settling at the lowest in nearly 30 months and posting its biggest weekly decline in four months, on heightened expectations of a large U.S. rate cut next week.

The yield ended at 6.7904%, the lowest since March 30, 2022, compared with its previous close of 6.8054%. It fell 6 basis points this week, the most since late May.

Rate futures rallied in reaction to media reports that suggested the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday would be a close call between a 25 or 50 basis points rate cut.

The probability of a 50 bps move tripled from a day earlier to 45%.

“After breaking a consolidation zone of 6.84%-6.89%, bond prices continued to surge,” said Gopal Tripathi, head of treasury and capital markets at Jana Small Finance Bank.

“Post the first cut from the Fed, expectations of a domestic rate cut may build in and the range for benchmark yield may shift lower to 6.75%-6.85%.” LOWER SUPPLY

Bond market sentiment was also upbeat after the Reserve Bank of India cancelled treasury bill auctions due in September, which will further boost banking system liquidity, leading to a drop in short-term rates.

The move won’t have an impact on the monetary policy outlook, which continues to be intricately tied to the inflation-growth balance, Vivek Kumar, an economist with QuantEco Research said.

Market participants expect the RBI to cut rates only in December.

India’s August retail inflation was at 3.65%, data showed on Thursday, higher than the revised 3.60% in July, but below the central bank’s target of 4% for the second month.

Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was estimated between 3.3% and 3.4% in August, according to economists.

This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.

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