American voters are set to elect their next president on November 5. With early voting numbers already breaking records nationwide and opinion polls predicting a cliffhanger, a few hundred thousand voters in a handful of critical swing states may ultimately determine who will become the 47th president of the United States (US).
Much like in 2020, this election will likely hinge on the same seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — all of which narrowly leaned toward President Joe Biden in 2020 — and North Carolina, where former President Donald Trump won by a slim margin four years ago.
As the country remains deeply polarised along partisan lines, razor-thin margins separate Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, and former President Donald Trump, the Republican candidate. A series of polls shows them running neck and neck in each of these critical states. Both campaigns are, therefore, focusing heavily on these battlegrounds, especially targeting independent and undecided voters who could tip the scales in favour of either candidate.
Given the relatively small voter margins needed to sway the outcome, each state has attracted multiple visits from Harris and Trump, along with extensive ad campaigns aimed at winning over persuadable voters.
Independents now make up the largest voting bloc in the US. According to a Gallup poll, an average of 43% of US adults identified themselves as independents in 2023, tying a record high first reached in 2014. The same poll found that 27% of adults identified as Republicans and 27% as Democrats.
In Pennsylvania, the largest swing state with 19 electoral votes and the biggest prize for both campaigns, of the nearly nine million registered voters, about 1.4 million are independents.
However, there is a major caveat. While a significant number of Americans identify as independent, many have a consistent lean toward either the Democratic or Republican Party.
A Pew Research Center poll in April 2024 found that among registered voters, 49% are Democrats or lean Democratic, while 48% are Republicans or lean Republican. This suggests that only around 3% are true independents without a partisan preference. This is the group of voters that could determine the outcome of the election, particularly in swing states.
The large independent identification is partially due to frustration with partisanship and gridlock. Voters are wary of the extremism they perceive in both major parties, and as a result, more Americans are moving away from strict party labels.
In addition to independents, another factor that could influence the election outcome is voter turnout, particularly among women and minority groups. The Harris campaign has focused extensively on appealing to women and minority voters, while the Trump campaign has centred its outreach on white male non-college-educated voters — a demographic group that largely supported him in 2020.
As of Thursday afternoon October 31, nearly 63 million Americans — 33 million voting in person and nearly 30 million returning mail-in ballots — had already cast their ballots, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab project.
Women make up 55% of early voters and men 45%, a Politico analysis of early voting in a number of states found. The gender gap is particularly pronounced in several swing states, where women are voting in higher numbers than men.
Women — especially suburban women and women of colour — are seen as a crucial demographic for the Harris campaign. In 2020, suburban women helped deliver key states to Biden, and the Harris campaign hopes to build on this support. Some of these suburban women are Republican or lean Republican but are “persuadable” swing voters and the Harris campaign is concentrating on securing their vote this year.
Trump, on the other hand, has been working to energise his base, particularly White men without college degrees, a group that has shown strong loyalty to him in successive election cycles. Within this segment, Trump’s campaign is stressing getting low-turnout or “irregular” voters to vote in this election cycle.
The efforts of both campaigns to maximise turnout among these demographics underline the importance of voter mobilisation and ground game in a race as close as this one.
While both campaigns are focusing on driving voters among their traditional bases, the handful of true independents — those who do not lean toward either party — hold significant power in determining the election outcome. Their relatively small numbers belie their potential impact. Even a modest shift in this segment could sway the result in one candidate’s favour.
For independent voters who feel disillusioned by the stark polarisation in US politics, issues like inflation, health care, immigration, and national security play a more significant role than partisan loyalty. Both campaigns are aware that their messaging to independents needs to address these issues directly, without appearing overly partisan.
In the end, it may all come down to three factors: The preferences of true independents, turnout among key demographics, and the impact of early voting in the battleground states. The truly independent voters who remain undecided, along with mobilisation efforts targeting specific demographics, may ultimately determine who becomes the next president.
As November 5 approaches, the eyes of the country — and the world — are fixed on the swing states, where the preferences of a narrow segment of voters may ultimately determine the election results.
Frank F Islam is an entrepreneur, civic leader, and thought leader based in Washington DC. The views expressed are personal
