Aug 05, 2024 09:04 PM IST
The recent turmoil in Venezuela will perhaps push Maduro’s regime to look even more closely at India, which will remain among a select few countries that can refine Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude oil
For a country facing the world’s largest displacement crisis in peacetime, grappling with violent crime and inflation, Venezuela is a tinderbox that can explode at any minute. The recently held presidential elections on July 28 add to this uncertainty and have captured global headlines. It is no secret that the electoral process in Venezuela is marred by irregularities, with numerous presidential candidates jailed or disqualified in the run-up to the elections, and opaque reporting of the results by the National Electoral Council. The incumbent government led by Nicolás Maduro claims they have won the elections, obtaining 51% of the vote, with 44% going to opposition candidate Edmundo González. The opposition asserts they received 67% of the vote, more than double the votes for Maduro. In this polarised environment, there are two narratives in response to the Venezuelan elections.
The first and more dominant narrative is that Maduro’s repressive regime needs to go. Maduro is often referred to as an autocrat, one who has co-opted most of the country’s democratic institutions, systematically silenced his critics and secured the support of the armed forces by bestowing them with control over the country’s critical resources. Consequently, the response from an overwhelming majority of countries has been to either reject the results announced by Maduro’s government or call for a transparent count of votes, tabulated and verified by observers. Several Latin American countries have reacted strongly, cutting off diplomatic ties or recalling their diplomats from Venezuela. Maduro has retaliated in equal measure, recalling diplomats from Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Peru, Panama, and Uruguay. Even the leaders of countries that maintain a cordial relationship with Maduro, like Brazil and Colombia, have questioned the veracity of the poll results. Unfortunately, there remains little hope for a transparent and fair verification of all electoral data.
The second narrative is limited mostly to Maduro’s own government and his dwindling number of supporters, and a clique of autocratic countries. The list of countries that have recognised Maduro’s victory is small, but it includes two major powers that have a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council — China and Russia. The narrative espoused by the Maduro’s officials is far more telling. Venezuela’s defence minister, Vladimir Padrino Lopez, a four-star general who has occupied the post since 2014, declared effusively in a televised speech that “we are witnessing a coup d’état once again plotted by these fascist factors of the extremist Right, supported by imperial factors, American imperialism together with its stooges and lackeys.” The Venezuelan armed forces’ continued support of Maduro has not swayed even in the slightest throughout the recent electoral process.
Understandably, the future of Venezuela seems clouded by instability, but three things are unlikely to change. First, Venezuelans will continue to flee in search of greener pastures. A recent poll found that “18% of respondents plan to flee Venezuela if Maduro remains in power after the election.” They will join nearly eight million Venezuelans who have already left the country. Second, Venezuela’s economy will continue to saunter. Although inflation has steadied from its six-digit highs to only 50% in 2023, jobs are scarce, industries have shut down, and investments are few and far between. Third, political repression will also continue, evident by the recent remarks made by Jorge Rodríguez, president of the National Assembly of Venezuela. Rodríguez referred to the entire opposition coalition using the term ‘fascists,’ who are attempting to start a civil war and who do not deserve ‘procedural benefits.’ His recent speech at the national assembly calling for opposition leaders to be jailed was met with fervent applause and a standing ovation.
India will be watching the events in Venezuela with rapt attention. The reason? Venezuela is home to the world’s largest oil reserves. A decade ago, Venezuela was the third-largest supplier of oil to India, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iraq. India stopped importing Venezuelan oil in late 2020 due to US secondary sanctions. However, India’s largest private oil major, Reliance Industries, received a waiver just last week from the US State Department to import Venezuelan oil. The recent turmoil in Venezuela will perhaps push Maduro’s regime to look even more closely at India, which will remain among a select few countries that can refine Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude oil, and also have the political appetite to deal with a country heavily sanctioned by the US and the western world. India has already shown its willingness to buy oil from another sanctioned country, Russia, and adding Venezuela to the list may help reduce India’s oil import bill.
Hari Seshasayee is co-founder of Consilium Group and visiting fellow at Observer Research Foundation.The views expressed are personal
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