In Srinagar, the struggle begins for full statehood

The first question is whether an NC-INC administration will be allowed to function smoothly, or will see a Delhi-type situation in which the lieutenant governor (LG) is constantly seen as impeding the elected government. It is too early to tell, but I believe that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is more likely to act covertly, as it did when in alliance with the PDP from 2015-2018, than overtly as in Delhi. In those three years, they rode roughshod over Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s bridge-building efforts and used their newfound connections with PDP ministers and legislators to instigate breakaway factions. Should they try to replicate that approach, the NC-INC alliance partners will have a double burden — to retain some authority as an elected administration, and to keep their MLAs together.

Both tasks are equally important for the alliance, but voters will look more to the former. It involves not only undertaking policy formulation and implementation in real-time, especially in the economy, but also a battle to acquire the power to do so. Under the new rules of business announced shortly before the assembly election, all key powers — over security, finances, police and the bureaucracy — are now vested in the LG, reducing the new administration to the functions of a municipality at best. The new administration will have to contend with the LG’s office over every administrative initiative, however small the issue.

Security will obviously be a major source of friction, given that the elected administration will wish to protect basic civil liberties such as an independent media and the right to dissent or protest, which are at present disallowed. There are hundreds of arbitrary cases under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act which need urgent redress. The NC manifesto promised a repeal of the Public Security Act, but they will need the Union home ministry’s assent to do so, since the new assembly, with close to one-third BJP members, is unlikely to secure a majority vote on the issue. And even if they do, it will require a central nod until full statehood is restored.

The restoration of full statehood at the earliest, as the Supreme Court recommended in its December 2023 judgment, will be a major challenge. Going by solicitor general Tushar Mehta’s statement in the 2023 Supreme Court hearings on the Article 370 petitions, the Modi administration contemplates a phased rather than full restoration. A campaign for full statehood could be a long-drawn-out step-by-step battle for each small authority unless the Supreme Court intervenes against the phase-by-phase approach.

Legally, the argument against the phased restoration of statehood is strong. The court did not rule on whether a state could be demoted to a Union territory (UT) because it was told statehood would be restored. Why it did not challenge the phase-by-phase restoration announced by the solicitor general is anybody’s guess. But if a state cannot be demoted to a UT, then it follows that statehood cannot be restored in phases. This is a constitutional issue that will be raised if it has not already been raised in the recent petition for statehood filed by two individuals.

The other big challenge will be freeing the economy from state control to ensure opportunities for local entrepreneurs and tackle youth unemployment, which is considerably higher in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) than in the rest of the country. Most of the policies of the past five years, from new land acquisition rules to the grant of mining, consumer goods and tourist licences to national rather than local companies, will have to be reviewed and where necessary rolled back.

Much will depend on how the central and LG administrations handle these key concerns. If they are wise, they will accommodate the new administration’s goals, allowing it to take the lead. But the temptation to hamper such initiatives is on the assumption that if this administration fails to fulfil the tasks that they were voted in to perform, voters might turn to the BJP or more pliant regional factions when the next assembly election takes place.

These are issues of national interest, and concern MPs as well as local legislators. Parliament has thus far been quiescent on the Modi administration’s actions in Jammu and Kashmir. With the 2024 election of a sizable number of Opposition MPs, this situation should change. The NC-INC administration will need their support in its battle for the powers that any elected administration rightfully deserves. For many Opposition-headed states, what happens in J&K is part of the larger struggle for federal rights.

All in all, the coming days and then months will be eventful for the new administration and the people of the state. We must hope that the outcomes will be more rather than less democratic, and especially that the opportunity for recovery that is now present will not be halted or marred by domestic or cross-border armed attacks. Equally, we must hope that the LG understands that the kind of games that his fellow governors played in Maharashtra, Jharkhand or Delhi must not be replicated in this volatile border state, where Pakistan-based armed groups hover to take advantage of any fault lines. That would truly vitiate the national interest.

Radha Kumar is the author of Paradise at War:A Political History of Jammu and Kashmir.The views expressed are personal

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