In both states the Opposition banked on anti-incumbency sentiments, including discontent over the perceived lack of employment opportunities, and a welfare model that was seen to prioritise short-term gains over long-term development policies.
The defeat of five-time chief minister Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) and the YSRCP’s YS Jagan Mohan Reddy in the assembly polls held alongside the general election frames anti-incumbency at work in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh respectively. From 23 seats out of 175 in 2019, the TDP — whose fortunes seemed to be at their lowest ebb a few months ago, following Chandrababu Naidu’s arrest last year in the alleged Skill Development Corporation scam — rose to win 135, while the ruling YSRCP, which had swept the previous assembly polls with 151 seats, was able to retain only 11. Even as it registered losses in its bastions like UP, the BJP’s inroads into Odisha point to its spread into new territories and clever leveraging of fatigue with the BJD — it secured 78 seats against BJD’s 51.
In both states the Opposition banked on anti-incumbency sentiments, including discontent over the perceived lack of employment opportunities, and a welfare model that was seen to prioritise short-term gains over long-term development policies. In Andhra Pradesh, the appeal of Jagan Reddy’s “Navaratnalu” promise — nine welfare programmes aimed at farmers, women and the poor – evidently dimmed before the TDP’s “Super Six” guarantees of welfare plus jobs. The TDP-JSP-BJP combine also tapped into disgruntlement over the controversial Land Titling Act and the widespread impression that a majority of the state’s funds were being spent on doles. Perceived vindictiveness towards political rivals also hurt the YSRCP’s prospects, especially after JSP’s Pawan Kalyan, in September last year, declared his support for Naidu in a made-for-camera moment outside Rajahmundry jail, where the latter was incarcerated. In neighbouring Odisha, in the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJD had won by a comfortable majority of 112 of its 147 assembly seats against the BJP’s 23. Ahead of this year’s assembly elections, speculation about Patnaik’s failing health, Odisha’s low indices on parameters such as education and employment became flashpoints that were successfully exploited by its former ally-turned-adversary. The state’s unemployment rate remains higher than the national average. Welfare schemes aimed at women and farmers that had powered Patnaik’s popularity through a large part of his 24-year tenure seemed to have run out of steam, opening up fertile ground for the BJP leadership to invoke Odia asmita (Odia pride) and attack Patnaik on the rise of his aide and private secretary V K Pandian as the de facto administrator who came in from outside. The Ratna Bhandar issue — the missing key to the treasury of Lord Jagannath — was raked up, too, as an example of the BJD’s alleged disrespect to Odia culture.
Cultural identities, however, are tricky terrains. As the BJP begins a new innings in the state, it will also need to remember that voters in the age group of 18-29 account for 23 per cent of Odisha’s electorate — they require jobs that will keep them in the state instead of looking for opportunities outside. In Andhra Pradesh, too, youth make up about 25 per cent of the state’s population. The jobs and development plank on which the winning alliance campaigned — helped by PM Modi’s appeal — must now become the template for the new government’s policies.
Click here for real-time updates on the Lok Sabha Election Results 2024
© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd
First uploaded on: 06-06-2024 at 07:33 IST
