Fumio Kishida’s resignation as Japan’s Prime Minister last month plunged the country into a state of political uncertainty, leaving the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) scrambling for leadership and direction. With public approval ratings hitting record lows and internal party strife intensifying, Kishida’s departure has raised concerns about the future of Japan and its role in the region’s geopolitical landscape. It has certainly opened the door for his successor to initiate potential policy shifts, especially in domestic reforms and economic strategies. At the same time, there is likely to be a degree of continuity in terms of foreign policy and security.
The LDP leadership election, scheduled for September 27, is critical in Japanese politics because the elected leader often becomes the Prime Minister, given that the party holds a majority in the House of Representatives. It is held every three years, and candidates are required to obtain endorsements from 20 LDP members of the Diet to officially run for the position. Who are the contenders, and what factors will be influential in this process?
First, given the importance of factional dynamics within the LDP, a candidate needs to build broad support across multiple factions to have a strong chance of winning. This means that even a candidate from a smaller faction, like Ishiba Shigeru, could become a serious contender if they can secure alliances.
Second, candidates who have strong public appeal, especially those who can present themselves as reformers keen to address national issues, might gain an edge. One such candidate is Takayuki Kobayashi, a younger, charismatic politician who can connect with the broader electorate. Having worked as a diplomat in the US and served in Kishida’s cabinet as Minister of Economic Security, he has displayed the capability to manage issues on both the foreign and economic policy front.
Third, even if Taro Aso, the former Prime Minister, and Toshimitsu Motegi, the current secretary general of the LDP, are not directly seeking the leadership, their backing will remain vital for any potential leader. One popular figure within the party is Taro Kono, who lost against Kishida in the last race. Not only does he come from an established political family, but he also has experience in the Abe administration as both Foreign Minister and Minister of Defence.
However, if the LDP wants to bring about a drastic change, it might elect Japan’s first female Prime Minister in either Takaichi Sanae, Minister of Economic Security, or Yoko Kamikawa, Minister of Foreign Affairs. Both have experience working with US Congress functionaries, making them well-prepared to deal with any US President. According to a survey by a political consulting group, the top choice was Ishiba Shigeru, followed by Takaichi Sanae. However, among LDP supporters, Takaichi was the most popular choice at 19.7 per cent, ahead of both Ishiba and Kono Taro.
A surprisingly popular figure in surveys is Shinjiro Koizumi, the son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Known for his youthful charm and candour, he served as the Minister of Environment from 2019 to 2021, pushing for more progressive policies on climate change. However, his relative inexperience and the mixed reception of his policies, such as his stance on phasing out nuclear energy, could be challenges in his bid to lead Japan. Despite these factors, he remains a notable contender, symbolising a potential generational change in Japanese politics.
Kishida’s asymmetrical legacy
While anticipating the appointment of the country’s next leader, it is worthwhile to reflect on Kishida’s term in office. His tenure was marked by ambitious economic policies directed at addressing the country’s long-standing issues of stagnation and inequality. His “New Capitalism” initiative sought to create a more equitable and sustainable economy; however, it faced criticism for lacking clarity and sufficient implementation strategies.
Where he was successful was in overseeing significant changes in Japan’s security policies, including increasing defence spending to over 2 per cent of GDP and revising key defence documents, like the National Security Strategy. These moves were aimed at bolstering Japan’s defence capabilities in response to growing regional threats posed by China and North Korea. He also reversed Japan’s post-Fukushima nuclear policy by pushing for the construction of new nuclear power plants as part of Japan’s decarbonisation efforts. This was a significant shift aimed at balancing energy needs with climate goals.
In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kishida’s administration took a firm stance, providing assistance to Ukraine and condemning Russia’s actions on the global stage. Further, he was instrumental in strengthening Japan’s alliances, particularly with the United States and South Korea, by focusing on deepening trilateral cooperation in response to regional security challenges posed by North Korea and China.
Despite these ostensibly strong foreign policy measures, a series of scandals related to political fundraising rocked the LDP, severely damaging public confidence in him and leading to increased instability. Kishida’s leadership struggled to unify the party, contributing to losses in key local elections, including in his home constituency of Hiroshima. Kishida’s decision to step down was also seen as an opportunity to reset the party’s image and address public dissatisfaction ahead of future elections.
Thus, the LDP faces a choice between continuity, represented by a candidate similar to Kishida in style, and change, which could bring in someone from outside the established leadership circle. On the policy front, the new leader is expected to maintain Japan’s strategic alliances, particularly with the United States and other Indo-Pacific partners, continuing its foreign policy approach while ushering in much-needed modifications on economic and social fronts.
The writer is a research analyst for the Indo-Pacific Studies Program at the Takshashila Institution
