Aug 06, 2024 08:43 PM IST
India does have the opportunity to craft a Bangladesh policy independent of who is in power in Dhaka, one based on structural factors like people-to-people ties, economic and investment flows, and linguistic/cultural links.
One of my earliest childhood memories was my father asking me to paint the headlights of our car black so that Pakistani jets would not locate it during the Bangladesh war of 1971. The irony of this incident is that we were living not in Calcutta, but in the deep south in Madurai. The other enduring memory of Bangladesh is Henry Kissinger calling it a “basket case,” alluding to the formidable economic and social challenges it faced at birth. Fast forward to 2022. The World Bank lauded the country’s overall socio-economic development. Most of this progress occurred when Sheikh Hasina was at the helm of Bangladesh.
What, then, explains the events of the past few weeks that led to her ouster on Monday? The first thing to note is that peace and development in South Asia are fragile and need to be preserved through deliberate action by the political leadership. Second, the “Colombo syndrome”, which refers to the mass protests in March 2022 when people attacked and ransacked the president’s palace, prompting then Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to flee abroad, is worth noting, with obvious comparisons now being made with events in Bangladesh and Hasina fleeing to Delhi. Third, democracy and freedom have strong roots in South Asia, and any attempt to shrink it runs the risk of serious blowback. Last, despite significant economic progress in both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, blatant inequalities in income and wealth drew the ire of the common man.
The immediate provocations are well known. Government jobs are still avidly sought after in most of South Asia, including Bangladesh. Hasina failed to gauge the mood against job quotas, which, for someone with her length in politics, is surprising. Bangladesh has always been a divided country. Broadly, there is a secular faction led by Hasina and her Awami League, which India has always backed for obvious reasons. And then there is the Islamist faction, whose strength must not be underestimated despite Hasina’s moves to marginalise it. It is this faction that has now burst into the open, likely with external support. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party, which represents this faction, may have been down and out, but its sympathisers were lying in wait for the right time to strike. Hasina gave them cause by overseeing the brutal crackdown on the protests by her party’s supporters. This did not go down well with most of the Bangladeshis who sympathised with the students. Bangladesh is not an easy country to govern, and it is to Hasina’s credit that she was able to govern for 15 years and enabled the country to make rapid economic strides. The cruel irony is that, under her leadership, Bangladesh was set to lose its Least Developed Country status in 2026. The political vacuum and the resulting uncertainty put in serious jeopardy everything Bangladesh achieved over the past two decades.
I had the opportunity to meet Hasina twice, and, on both occasions, she spoke mainly about how far Bangladesh had come under her charge. In November 2021, I moderated a panel at the Paris Peace Forum in which she was the lead speaker, and she spoke enthusiastically about women’s labour force participation, female literacy and nutrition for the girl child. On all these metrics, Bangladesh led other nations by a mile in South Asia.
India did the right thing, helping Hasina flee. It must intervene with friendly countries to ensure she gets asylum at the earliest possibility. For India though, what happens now in Bangladesh is of enormous importance. There is a precedent. In January 2007, the military intervened and a caretaker government under former World Bank official Fakhruddin Ahmed was formed. The formation of an interim government now is similar though the circumstances are not the same.
India confronts a set of key strategic challenges in Bangladesh. First, this is a blow to India’s Neighbourhood First policy. Bangladesh was a linchpin to this strategy. Second, regional forums like the Colombo Security Conclave may be impacted by this. Third, India needs a peaceful and prosperous Bangladesh, but both those things are in doubt now. Fourth, it is what comes next in Bangladesh that will worry Indian decision-makers the most. If the Islamic faction does gain traction and manages to win a free and fair election, then India will have no choice but to deal with it. Last, India must closely consult with its western friends, the United States in particular, which does not seem to appreciate the Islamic challenge in Bangladesh as much as it does the democratic backsliding one.
India does have the opportunity to craft a Bangladesh policy independent of who is in power in Dhaka, one based on structural factors like people-to-people ties, economic and investment flows, and linguistic/cultural links. Such a policy must be based on unconditional access to our market and a commitment to strengthen connectivity and investment between our two countries. The only caveat should be our security concerns, clearly articulated in advance. For now, India should ensure, along with its western partners, a free and fair election in Bangladesh at the earliest, making it abundantly clear that it is up to the people of Bangladesh to decide who should govern them.
Mohan Kumar is a former Indian ambassador to France and is currently dean and professor atOP Jindal Global University. The views expressed are personal
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