Race riots in the United Kingdom, the toppling of a democratically-elected government by mobs in Dhaka, a new chapter of the war in Ukraine — that is now a war inside Russia — the continuing bloodshed in Gaza, and the looming threat of an Iran-Israel war breaking out, all point to an ominous future. Unrest, disruption, and violence, or threats of these, dominate headlines. How should we, as citizens of the world, react?
History is, no doubt, continually pockmarked by similar occurrences that have sometimes been loosely called mere “aberrations” in periods of tranquillity. More often, a “one man’s terrorist is another’s freedom fighter” view adopted by many in the West has woefully dominated the discourse on a subject that deserves the utmost seriousness and objectivity. The current unrest both in the West and East is dangerously widespread, with political debates everywhere getting more shrill and divisive.
Lamentably, none of the hotspots of the world seem to have cooled down. The fires that have been burning underneath the surface are now breaking through with ferocity. On top of these, the climate crisis continues to play havoc all over the world. The ferocious flash floods and landslides that occurred this year in Kerala seem to be becoming common occurrences. Severe flash flooding has been seen in many European locations. Wildfires have ripped through communities in Canada, Greece, California and Uttarakhand. They are no longer forest fires, but uncontrollable firestorms. And now, a global public health emergency, Mpox, has us all hurrying to prevent it from graduating into a pandemic.
With these natural disasters and dangers threatening to impact large sections of humanity, tragically, the sum of all human progress is now deployed to wars or fighting disasters. Most concerning is the fraught discussions on the internet, social media, and TV channels that are sowing fear and hatred, thus creating fertile ground for even more violence.
In the East, tensions are at all-time highs across the Korean Demilitarised Zone. North Korea continues to test missiles and rockets that can strike Japan and South Korea in a matter of minutes. Meanwhile, the United States’ (US) deployments in the region have long threatened the North. Chinese tensions in the South China Sea and with Taiwan threaten to break out into a war any time. There are no interlocutors that could calm the tensions.
Closer home, Pakistan has ramped up cross-border terror strikes in the Jammu region. Just a few months after its last general election, violence engulfed the streets of Dhaka. Attacks against minority Hindus were reported from across the country. This could have unpredictable consequences. India could not just stand by and watch in 1970-71, but it is hard to surmise what course of action it can take today.
The conflict in Gaza that has levelled the enclave and killed close to 40,000 persons so far shows no signs of abating. A bigger war might break out any minute in Israel’s North, between Israelis and Lebanon’s Hezbollah militia, which is a proxy of Iran in the region. A direct conflict between Israel and Iran, too, can’t be taken off the board just yet. The US has moved two aircraft carrier strike forces, both nuclear-capable, to the East Mediterranean and Persian Gulf. Reinforcements have been pouring into the region. Again, much like other hotspots, while there are many on both sides baying for blood, there are fewer and fewer voices for calm and sanity.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has taken the war right into Russia, and Ukrainian troops have occupied large tracts of Russian land. They are also said to be moving toward control of Kurchatov nuclear power plant. What Ukraine plans is not clear just yet, but this marks the first time since World War II that foreign troops are on Russian soil. Instead of seeking calm, the US and European powers are egging Ukraine on.
While these crises are sprinkled across the world, they pose very pertinent threats to India. Energy supply-chain disruptions would cause oil prices to skyrocket. That would have disastrous consequences for the Indian economy. Closing of marine and air routes in West Asia, which are already at choking points because of wars, will impact exports and travel. While India has made great and essential strides toward self-reliance, in this very interconnected world of technology and commerce, English author John Donne’s words come to mind: “No man is an island.” In this world, we all rely on each other — on neighbours, nations, and continents.
How did we, in the past get over, crises to move forward and give most of us a meaningful and enjoyable life? It is introspection of this kind that gives us a measure of optimism that we will somehow tide over the current crises resulting from senseless killings in various regions of the world.
One must inevitably come to the conclusion that if we wish for peace, we must prepare for war. Preparation for dealing with existential crises requires that there is unity at home. India can ill afford to continue fractious politics over every issue, and all the time. Wishing for these crises to go away would be preposterously naive. What is needed is sharp preparedness to predict and prepare for consequences on this wild chessboard. How many of us are able to connect the dots is a matter of speculation.
RK Raghavan is a former Indian high commissioner to Cyprus. The piece was co-authored with Ajay Goyal, a security analyst based in Europe. The views expressed are personal
