NEW DELHI: The ‘Shehzada’ has finally done it. After two successive humiliating losses in national elections,
Rahul Gandhi
has led the Congress to a respectable tally of 99 seats, which may mark the beginning of revival of the grand old party. The fact that Congress’s 2024 score of 99 is more than the party’s combined tally in the two previous elections, tells us volumes about the importance of this improved performance.
True, the Congress and the opposition INDIA bloc’s numbers have fallen way short of the halfway mark of 272, but their surprise success has ensured that the BJP has also failed to reach the magical mark on its own.
Narendra Modi is set to assume charge as Prime Minister for the third time, but the keys of his government will be with Chandrababu Naidu whose party TDP has 16 seats and Nitish Kumar who has 12 seats. The survival of NDA 3.0 will largely depend on these two regional allies.
So, what worked for the Congress? How did the grand old party fight Prime Minister Modi’s ambitious ‘abki baar 400 paar’ pitch which had fueled expectations of further
BJP dominance
. Modi’s extensive campaign, featuring over 206 rallies, seemed poised to rewrite electoral records. Exit polls echoed similar sentiments, predicting a sweeping victory for the BJP.
However, the actual results defied projections, with the BJP managing only 240 seats and the NDA 292.
Route of the Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra (Photo credit: @Jairam_Ramesh)
The Congress did several things right. Its strategy included bowing down to regional parties’ demands during seat sharing talks, sticking to its pre-defined poll narrative and smart coordination with the regional parties.
However, one of the key mobilisations that perhaps helped the party was Rahul Gandhi’s two yatras. The Bharat Jodo yatra and the
Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra
saw Rahul Gandhi criss-crossing the country to connect with its supporters and mobilise the voters.
While the Bharat Jodo Yatra saw Rahul travelling from Kanyakumari to Kashmir, the Nyay Yatra that began in January this year, made a political statement by starting from violence-affected Manipur.
The Congress called the yatra ‘non-political’ but as it progressed so did the political narrative surrounding it.
While the Yatra may have failed to dent the BJP in several of its strongholds, it did help the grand old party make significant gains in some states. The yatras helped the party connect with the grassroots and eventually make some electoral gains.
Here’s a look at how the yatra helped the party in some key states.
Resurgence in northeast
Rahul’s Yatra, which began in the violence-hit region of Manipur, paid dividends in the northeast. The grand old party experienced a resurgence, winning six out of the seven Lok Sabha seats through which the Yatra passed.
In Manipur, despite BJP’s prior success, Congress made significant gains, securing victory in the Meitei-dominated Inner Manipur and outmaneuvering ally NPF in tribal-majority outer Manipur. Nagaland also saw a Congress victory, breaking the NDA stronghold since 2004.
In Assam, while BJP maintained dominance with 9 out of 14 seats, Congress held steady at 3 seats from the 2019 elections. Arunachal Pradesh remained impervious to the Yatra’s influence, with BJP claiming both seats.
Meghalaya presented a mixed bag as Congress won in Tura after decades but lost in Shillong to Ricky Andrew J. Syngkon of Voice of the People Party.
Yatra falters in West Bengal
The Yatra failed to have any major impact on the fortunes of the grand old party in Bengal, where it managed to halve its tally from 2019 and managed to win just a seat, Maladaha Dakshin. The party faced rejection from fellow INDIA bloc ally Mamata Banerjee for participation and subsequently suffered losses in all three constituencies where the Yatra passed through.
Gains in Bihar, Jharkhand
In Bihar, where the party had only won one seat in 2019, the yatra passed through Kishanganj, Araria, Purnia, and Sasaram. This time, in partnership with Lalu’s RJD, which also faced a setback in the 2019 elections by not winning any seats, the alliance achieved better results. The RJD clinched four seats, while the Congress secured three. Among the seats won were Kishanganj and Sasaram, the latter being a BJP stronghold since 2014, along with Katihar.
In Jharkhand, the yatra passed through Dhanbad, Ranchi, and Jamshedpur. Despite setbacks along the yatra route, where Congress was defeated in all three constituencies, they achieved significant victories elsewhere. In 2019, the NDA won 12 seats while the UPA secured 2 seats. In 2024, the NDA maintained its tally of 12 seats, with Congress winning 2 and its INDIA bloc partner JMM securing 3 seats. In Khunti, Congress ousted former Jharkhand CM Arjun Munda, breaking the BJP’s hold since 2009. Additionally, Congress won in Lohardaga, a constituency the BJP had dominated since 2009.
Yatra’s impact minimal in Odisha and Chhattisgarh
The Yatra remained largely ineffective in Odisha where the grand old party failed to make any gains and maintained its tally of just 1 seat. The state witnessed the rise of BJP both in the Lok Sabha elections where the party significantly improved its tally of 8 seats in 2019 to 20 in 2024, as well as gaining a majority at the Vidhan Sabha level.
In Chhatisgarh Yatra passed through Raigarh, Ambikapur, Korba, Janjgir. However the party failed to make any electoral gains and witnessed a setback winning just 1 seat, halving its tally from 2019.
Game changer in Uttar Pradesh
The yatra in Uttar Pradesh spanned 1,074 kilometers, going through 20 districts including Varanasi, Prayagraj, Amethi, Raebareli, Lucknow, Bareilly, Aligarh, and Agra, where it made the biggest difference. In 2019, Congress won 1 seat and its INDIA bloc ally SP had won 5, while the BJP won 62 seats. This time fighting together in the INDIA bloc, SP won 37, congress won 6 and the BJP’s seat share came down to 33. Rahul secured an emphatic win in Rae Bareli with 3.5 lakh votes, while Gandhi loyalist Kishori Lal won back Amethi, a Congress stronghold where Rahul had lost to Smriti Irani in 2019. The movie of the ‘two Shehzadas’ was a hit in the state.
BJP’s stronghold unbroken in MP and Gujarat
In Madhya Pradesh, the yatra traversed through nine districts, including Guna and Ujjain. Despite the Congress party’s efforts, the BJP’s stronghold in the state remained unshakable. Madhya Pradesh, where the BJP had established its first government, has been a bastion for the party in Lok Sabha elections, with the BJP securing a near-perfect victory in almost every election since 1996.
Rahul Gandhi’s Yatra, however, seemed to have little impact on the state’s political landscape. The BJP’s dominance was reaffirmed as they won all 29 seats in Madhya Pradesh, leaving no room for the Congress party to make any significant inroads.
The yatra went through seven districts, notably Dahod and Mandvi, within the of Gujarat. Gaining seats in Gujarat where the saffron party had secured all 26 seats in both 2014 and 2019 was always going to be an uphill battle for the Party and the poll results reflected the same. Despite this, the Congress party made headway and managed to secure the Banaskantha seat.
Turning tides in Rajasthan
The Yatra entered Rajasthan on March 2. Although it didn’t start off on a promising note with Rahul’s brief three-minute address in Mania village, the enthusiasm of party workers who had gathered to welcome his nationwide tour was dampened by the disappointment in Dholpur. Despite the setback in 2019, where the party failed to secure any seats, the fortunes of the grand old party began to turn around. This time, they managed to secure 8 seats, marking a significant improvement.
Yatra pays dividends in Maharashtra
The Yatra’s final leg unfolded in Maharashtra, passing through Malegaon, Nashik, and Thane, spanning six districts before culminating in Mumbai on March 16.
In the 2019 elections, the political landscape saw the Congress securing one seat, the BJP claiming 23, and the Shiv Sena winning 18, while the NCP took 4. However, significant changes ensued by 2024: the Shiv Sena and the NCP had split, giving rise to the Shiv Sena under Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray and the Nationalist Congress Party-Sharadchandra Pawar faction (NCP-SCP).
Exit polls predicted that the Mahayuti, which includes the BJP and its allies, could secure between 30 and 35 seats in Maharashtra. On the other hand, the MVA, comprising the remaining factions of the Shiv Sena, NCP, and Congress, will win between 15 to 18 seats.
However the results presented a different picture The INDIA blocmade substantial gains in the state with the Congress securing 13 seats, Shiv Sena (UBT) 9, and NCP (SCP) clinching 8. In contrast, the BJP-led NDA won 17 seats, with the BJP claiming 9, Shiv Sena securing 7, and NCP winning 1.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections marked a significant yet mixed comeback for the Congress and its allies. Despite the BJP’s continued dominance, Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra played a pivotal role in revitalizing the party’s grassroots connections and securing crucial victories in regions like the Northeast, Uttar Pradesh, and Maharashtra. However, challenges remain, as the Congress struggles to reclaim influence in key states like West Bengal, Odisha, and Madhya Pradesh.
