In Haryana, the BJP seems to be snatching victory from the jaws of exit polls, most of which had predicted a crushing win for Congress in Haryana. Though results are still pouring in, leads plus wins show that the BJP is well past the majority mark. Most expect the BJP to win in Haryana, the third time consecutively, which will be a unique feat when the party was seen to be weighed down by long incumbency.
The BJP victory in Haryana, where the odds were stacked high against it, will show that the party is not in downfall, as many had thought after its less-than-expected performance in the Lok Sabha polls a few months ago.
If the BJP wins in Haryana, the results are likely to impact upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
What the BJP victory in Haryana would mean
The BJP’s victory in Haryana assembly polls, which seems possible due to its leads and wins, will reset the electoral narrative in India.
After the BJP fell well below its target of winning 400 seats in the Lok Sabha polls, and also failed to gain simple majority, it had to form government with the help of major allies, the TDP and the JD(U). That was seen as the end of a decade of hegemony of the BJP and the rise of the INDIA bloc of opposition parties. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, the biggest opposition leader, was seen to have come of age as the Congress nearly doubled its seats from 52 it had won in the 2019 polls. The famous Modi wave, the pull that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s persona had on voters, was also seen to be ebbing.
More importantly, the opposition parties came to believe that they had finally found a winning formula — freebies, caste census and more caste quotas — which could defeat the BJP’s development plus Hindutva agenda.
Though poll results in just one state may not mean much for larger contexts, Haryana elections are important because they made for the perfect ground for the BJP’s defeat. It had been in power for two consecutive terms in a state where no party had won third consecutive term. It faced the backlash from dominant jaat community after farm protests. Wrester protests were also seen to have made a big dent in the party’s image in a state where sports matter a lot. The BJP had to remove Manohar Lal Khattar from the top job just before the polls, reportedly due to rising unpopularity of the government across voter groups. And it went to polls led by a new chief minister, Nayab Singh Saini, who did not come up to the stature of his main opponent, Bhupinder Singh Hooda of the Congress. On top of it, exit polls as well as mood and sentiment favored the Congress strongly.
If the BJP manages to win in Haryana despite all these odds, it will be a big message for those who believed after the Lok Sabha polls that the party was losing its strong hold on voters, Modi’s popularity had peaked, and Rahul Gandhi had evolved into a strong challenger.
While infighting in the Congress would be blamed if the party loses the polls, there could be no discounting of the BJP’s smart strategies.
Two major messages from the BJP’s possible Haryana victory would be that its ability to cobble up winning caste combinations has not eroded, and it can effectively counter the formidable freebies strategy of the Congress. Another message would be the continuity of the BJP’s electoral dominance which was seen to have loosened after its humble Lok Sabha performance.
The narrative that the BJP is a spent force after a decade of political and electoral dominance in the country will be rewritten by its Haryana victory. The BJP’s win will show that its much-feared electoral machinery as well as the Modi magic are intact.
The Haryana impact on Maharashtra and Jharkhand
The most immediate impact on the BJP’s victory in Haryana will be on the upcoming assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand where the messages from Haryana will resound.
Besides boosting morale of the party workers who were crestfallen after the Lok Sabha results, especially from Uttar Pradesh where the BJP lost a lot of seats to opposition parties, a victory in Haryana will also bolster the party’s image among voters who have been hearing the narrative about the BJP’s decline and the ris of the INDIA bloc. On the other hand, it will introduce friction in the opposition bloc which will be forced to reevaluate and reconsider its poll strategies as well as seat-sharing arrangements since the dominance of the Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi will taken a hit from loss in Haryana.
The BJP victory will also prove that the party’s canny ability to get the caste equations right still works. This will give confidence to party strategists as well as attract smaller caste politicians who could be drifting away from the BJP after the party’s Lok Sabha setback.
The BJP tried to bring together non-Jat votes under its OBC chief Minister Nayab Singh Saini as well as tried to attract Dalit voters in the Congress fold. The strategy seems to have worked and will give confidence to its strategists to play on the front foot in Maharashtra and Jharkhand.
The BJP promised minimum support price (MSP) on 24 crops to farmers and financial aid of Rs 2,100 to all women in Haryana. This was to counter the key promises of Congress of 300 units of free electricity and free medical treatment up to Rs 25 lakhs for every family.
The freebies strategy will be replicated in Maharashtra as Jharkhand too. In Maharashtra, it has already introduced a direct benefit transfer scheme for women, the Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojna which involves transfer of Rs 1,500-a-month into the accounts of women between the age of 21 and 60 and whose family income is less than Rs 2.5 lakh annually. The BJP will double down on such schemes in both states.
The BJP’s victory in Haryana will also mean that the party will face a demoralised opposition in both states. Rahul Gandhi, who has been aggressively opposing PM Modi and the BJP, might be forced to rethink his strategy and the Congress will have less bargaining power in the INDIA bloc if it loses Haryana.
