The regional elections in the eastern German States of Thuringia and Saxony — Brandenburg goes to the polls on September 22 — have captured attention because of the rise of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), the far-right party with neo-Nazi roots. The results underline an unmistakable trend in German politics — the AfD, despite earnest efforts by establishment parties to isolate it, is on the ascent. Classified as “extremist” by domestic intelligence, the AfD emerged as the largest vote-getter in Thuringia with 32.8% votes and finished second in Saxony, with 30.6% votes. Formed in 2013, it has built a base by constantly attacking the establishment and taking a hardline, nationalist approach towards immigration. The Reason and Justice Alliance, a leftist nationalist-populist upstart also known as the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), emerged as a dark horse with 15.8% vote in Thuringia and 11.8% in Saxony. The party, which opposed Germany’s continued military assistance for Ukraine and campaigned for better social protection for workers and tougher laws to control immigration, finished third. The strong showing of the AfD and the BSW points to growing anti-establishment sentiment. While Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Socialists finished fifth in Thuringia with 6.1% vote and fourth in Saxony with 7.3% votes, his coalition partners, the Greens and the pro-market Free Democratic Party, fared worse. The conservative Christian Democrats was the only establishment party that did well.
Despite the Thuringia result, the AfD is unlikely to form the government as no party is willing to join a coalition led by it. But this strategy might face challenges. The AfD’s rise has already pushed Germany’s polity towards the Right, with even the Socialists taking a tougher line on immigration. Now with the largest vote share in Thuringia, the AfD will play a critical role in the statehouse as a powerful bloc even if it is kept out of government. And, if it continues to grow in popularity (it is expected to finish first in Brandenburg), even the policy of political untouchability will come under stress. To check the rise of the right-wing extremists, the establishment parties, especially Mr. Scholz’s unpopular coalition, should be mindful of popular sentiments, angst and demands. The war in Ukraine and its impact on the German economy, which fell into a recession last year, are taking a toll on Germany. Berlin should work toward ending the war, tackling economic challenges and addressing working class concerns. Unless the underlying conditions that the far right exploits are addressed, mere political untouchability might not help in stalling the far-right’s rise in Germany, where memories of the Nazi violence are still fresh.
