Hidden in the monsoon story

It has been a bountiful monsoon if we go by the total quantum of rain recorded — around 108% of the long-period average (LPA), calculated for the period between 1971 to 2020. In fact, it has been the highest quantum of monsoon rainfall since 2020 when 109% of LPA was recorded. But the big picture masks the increasingly awry patterns that the monsoon is making, which if it becomes the trend, will pose a challenge to governments. This year, for instance, unprecedented, extreme rainfall that could not be forecast accurately overwhelmed Delhi, Mumbai, some cities in Gujarat, and several other parts of the country, crippling infrastructure and showering misery on people. In Delhi, on the night of June 27, a cloud cluster formed just ahead of the arrival of the monsoon in the city. Weather models could not predict the unprecedented amount of rain that would lash the city though the India Meteorological Department had issued a nowcast warning that predicted intense rain. Hours later, the city woke up to the highest rain it had recorded in a day since 1936. Residents from Delhi neighbourhoods had to pump out water from their homes and yards for days.

In Kerala’s Wayanad, over 250 people were killed in multiple landslides in July. Yet, Kerala is witnessing a 13% rain deficiency, with Wayanad reporting 30% shortfall. Similarly, the East and northeast recorded 14% deficiency. The paddy-growing states such as Bihar have recorded a 19% deficiency, while states in the northeast are all reporting a deficit. On the other end, Gujarat and Rajasthan, considered arid states, have received rainfall that 48% and 56% over the LPA respectively. Climate scientists have flagged this shift in monsoon distribution. But are these states prepared to deal with the economic impact of the new pattern?

Another trend also calls for careful planning. Monsoon months have seen record heat this year. It was the warmest June for northwest India since record-keeping began in 1901. India recorded its second warmest July since 1901 in terms of mean temperatures and the warmest July when it came to night-time temperatures. It was also the warmest August in terms of night-time or minimum temperatures.

The interplay of rising temperatures, humidity levels, and glacial melt being recorded globally is likely to throw the monsoon out of gear. According to the agriculture ministry, 51% of India’s farmed area is rain-fed, making monsoon rains critical. With 47% of the country’s population dependent on agriculture for their livelihood, a bountiful monsoon has a direct correlation with a healthy rural economy. Accurate forecasts and adaptation are the need of the hour.

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