As agreed upon in the ceasefire deal, Israel withdrew from two crucial military positions — the Rafah crossing and the Netzarim corridor — which united the north and south of Gaza. (AP)
Mar 3, 2025 13:48 IST First published on: Mar 3, 2025 at 13:48 IST
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire has surpassed plenty of inner and external obstacles since January 19, but this week, it may not survive to get to the second phase. Not expected to succeed in the first place, the ceasefire was a significant development after the prolonged war over 15 months. In its six-week-long first phase, the hostage deal required Hamas to release 33 women, children, civilian men over 50 and those deemed “humanitarian cases” in return for some 1,900 Palestinian prisoners.
Hamas and Israel claimed victory over each other in the devastating war in Gaza and didn’t regret any of their political choices or maximalist positions. While Israeli hostages languished in the tunnels for over a year, the large population of Gaza was kept afloat with rationed aid as it endured the wintry winds of the Mediterranean Sea. The six-week period of the deal was tense, yet both parties delivered on their part in an unusual episode of compulsion, cooperation and compromise. There is now suspense around what and how the second stage will be.
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As agreed upon in the ceasefire deal, Israel withdrew from two crucial military positions — the Rafah crossing and the Netzarim corridor — which united the north and south of Gaza. Withdrawing from the Netzarim corridor allowed the Palestinians to return to their destroyed homes on the north side of the city. Previously, all such demands were outrightly rejected by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Several factors played a role in compelling him to the deal, like Donald Trump’s return to the White House, who wanted an “end” to the war before he took oath on January 20. The military failure in dismantling Hamas’ tunnels by the Israeli army was a key factor too. Netanyahu and his coalition couldn’t evade the domestic pressure from the families of the hostages yet to return, especially after all the force used in Gaza. They were running out of excuses, their claims of “total victory” in Gaza exposed.
In the latest report by Haaretz, an Israeli newspaper, there are still 59 hostages left (24 alive and 35 dead) in Gaza. Israel is now in a precarious situation. Netanyahu has sent a delegation from Jerusalem to join Qatar and US mediators in Cairo but refused to discuss stage two with Hamas. Instead, he suggested an extension of the first phase by six more weeks, which Hamas has rejected. In response, Israel has halted humanitarian aid, suspending supplies of all essential goods and food. The coming days are critical. If Israel and Hamas keep negotiations alive, even without an agreement, war would not resume as per the January 19 ceasefire agreement.
Hamas was alleged to have broken the deal by Israeli leaders as well as US mediators; however, those were delays in giving names of the hostages beforehand or not sticking to the number of releases weekly. There was a brutal episode of the return of the dead bodies of a mother, Shirin Bibas, and her two children, when Hamas sent another dead body in the coffin of the mother, and it took them time to send the right one. This could have been a breaking point for the Israeli public as well as political parties because this particular family held lots of emotion among Israelis who thought they would return alive. The other issue that Netanyahu objected to was about Hamas releasing the hostages in public ceremonies and staged performances, where they were to hold pamphlets and gifts that they might not have been able to decline. When demanded to release hostages privately, Hamas relented without delay and released four coffins in the quiet hours of February 26.
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Hamas wants to continue with the January 19 deal because it has benefitted the most from the first phase, by showing Gazans as well as the rest of the world that it is still very much in command in Gaza, undefeated. The elaborate release ceremonies and the parading of the hostages, inviting hundreds of the public to watch the spectacle, was perhaps the most unexpected and humiliating development for the Israeli leadership. It was a weekly show, and even the Israeli public couldn’t resist its public nature, watching it live on TV.
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Given how Hamas played the whole deal in its favour and made the best of it, Netanyahu may now go for a reworked and re-negotiated deal. He has the full support of Trump, for whether he decides to continue the truce or resume the war. Hamas is still standing in Gaza and that’s a hard fact to come to terms with.
The writer is associate professor and director, Jindal Centre for Israel Studies, Jindal School of International Affairs, OP Jindal Global University
