Modi 3.0 has hit the ground running. While the oath-taking ceremony was a clear signal of its “neighbourhood first” policy, with heads of state from neighbouring countries present, PM Modi’s visit to Italy soon after that, for the G7 summit was a reiteration of India’s rightful place at the global high table.
With the SCO Summit in Kazakhstan and PM Modi’s (likely) visit to Russia slated for July, the Indian foreign ministry has taken the lead in Modi 3.0. Foreign policy was one of the major successes of Modi’s previous term. If any region stood out as a shining example of convergence, it was West Asia. These moves signal an energetic and purposeful foreign policy in the third term as well.
West Asia has been a region of prime focus since Modi came to power in 2014. Over the past decade, there has been an unprecedented boost in political and economic engagement with the region, and the traditional buyer-seller relationship, primarily focused on energy imports, has been transformed into a strong strategic engagement.
India and West Asia under Modi – a recap
While the first term could be termed as a period of “reaching out”, Modi’s second term was about converting these efforts into concrete relationships. The foundation was laid with Modi’s visit to the UAE in August 2015, the first by an Indian PM in three decades. Over the next nine years, India-West Asia ties have flourished. Partnership agreements were signed with the UAE in 2015, Saudi Arabia in 2019, and Egypt in 2023. These were in addition to the strategic partnership agreement signed with Oman in 2008. Modi’s visit to Bahrain in 2019, (the first by an Indian PM) and the Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tarik’s visit to India in December 2023 after decades, signalled a growing strategic convergence.
Energy security, which defined our traditional dependency on the region, got a major fillip during the last two terms. Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have been among the top five exporters of crude oil to India. Among other major developments in securing energy needs, the UAE became the first country in 2018 to sign an agreement with New Delhi to store strategic oil reserves in India with an initial investment of $400 million. A $78 billion LNG deal was signed with Qatar in 2024, with an assured supply of 7.5 million tonnes of LNG annually, extended till 2048 at lower than current rates. Earlier, in July 2023, ADNOC (Abu Dhabi National Oil Company) and Indian Oil had signed a long-term LNG contract for 1.2 million metric tonnes, over 14 years.
On the trade front, the UAE was the frontrunner in the region. The highlight was the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) signed with the UAE in February 2022, which aims to significantly improve trade and business opportunities and increase bilateral trade to $115 billion in five years. The Bilateral Investment Treaty (BIT) with the UAE, also promises to significantly boost bilateral economic engagement, especially manufacturing and foreign direct investment.
Security cooperation, which had not received much traction earlier, has emerged as one of the key areas of success. An agreement with Oman – facilitating the provision of logistical facilities to the Indian Navy in Duqm port took shape. This is advantageous to the Indian Navy in its operations in the Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf, and Red Sea. It also helps to keep a watch on growing Chinese naval activity in the region. Security cooperation with the UAE and Saudi Arabia has also increased. Joint military exercises like ‘Desert Cyclone’ with the UAE and ‘Sada Tanseeq’ with Saudi Arabia were both recently conducted in India. Some major outcomes include a military cooperation agreement with Egypt in September 2022. Egypt also expressed interest in buying Tejas fighter jets and Brahmos missiles from India. Significant progress has been made on the intelligence-sharing front, especially counter-terrorism.
Modi 3.0 – Looking Ahead
Modi’s previous terms have laid a strong foundation for the coming five years. Trade, security, and strategic partnerships can be further built upon. Important initiatives taken in the past can be pursued to benefit India at the earliest. Some of the countries in the region, relations with which have remained on the back burner, can be actively engaged with.
Kuwait and Iran are two such examples, which have huge potential for Indian diplomacy. Specific focus could strengthen bilateral ties and ensure India’s holistic outreach to West Asia.
Kuwait and India have historically enjoyed friendly relations. However, recently, the ties have somewhat stagnated. The last PM to visit Kuwait was Indira Gandhi, in 1981. A proposed visit by PM Modi in 2022 did not fructify, but similar steps in the future could strengthen ties as Kuwait has a lot to offer. With large crude oil production and sovereign wealth funds, it offers huge opportunities for collaboration in the trade and education spheres.
Although there has been some intensification in India’s engagement with Iran, its full potential is yet to be realised. With the 10-year agreement to manage the strategically located Chabahar port, signed in January 2024, there is positive intent from both sides. The completion of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) which runs through Iran is also important for India as India’s outreach to Central Asia and Afghanistan depends on it. In addition, Iran shares a long land border with West Pakistan and could be an important security ally.
Yemen, recovering from a decade-long civil war, could benefit from Indian efforts to stabilise the nation. The Socotra island in the Arabian Sea could be a vital point of cooperation with the Indian Navy, against piracy and to secure sea lanes. The IMEEC corridor, announced on the sidelines of India’s G20 Summit, is another project that has the potential to connect India with the region and Europe, another point of focus for the next five years.
Over the past decade, India and West Asia have come a long way in revitalising a somewhat stagnant relationship. PM Modi’s personal rapport with the region’s leadership has been a contributing factor. With the intensification of bilateral ties and mutual convergence on strategic issues, India has high stakes in the region. As India grows into a major economic, political, and military power, West Asia in India’s extended neighbourhood, forms an important vector of India’s global matrix. Hopefully, Modi 3.0 will continue to further consolidate its outreach to the region, over the next five years.
The writer served as a Director in the Military Intelligence and Director at the Ministry of External Affairs. Views are personal
