For Kamala Harris, a four-fold test at the debate

One debate ended the political life of Joe Biden, the incumbent American president, a 50-year veteran of politics, and the almost unchallenged Democratic leader who had received the support of 14 million voters of his party in the primaries. And that debate led to the surprise elevation of Kamala Harris to the top of the ticket, a transition that was so smooth that it took even Democrats by surprise.

But that transition remains incomplete, for unifying the party base is not the same as winning the election. And Harris knows that well, as she consistently projects herself as the underdog in the battle against Donald Trump. For his part, after the debate with Biden, an assassination attempt, and a convention marked by his complete takeover of the Republican Party, Trump thought that the presidency was all his, only to be thrown off his game partially with Harris as his rival.

The vice president and former president will get a chance — and never again in this election campaign will the two candidates get the same chance — to make their best case to voters, and showcase the other as being the worst possible choice to run America, on Tuesday night eastern time (Wednesday 6.30 am IST).

ABC News will host the 90-minute Harris-Trump debate in Pennsylvania. Anchors David Muir and Linsey Davis will moderate it. The candidates will get two minutes to speak, two minutes for rebuttal, and an additional minute for clarification and follow-up questions. When their time is up, the microphones will be muted, a rule that the Harris campaign wanted changed because they believed that leaving the mike on would show Trump in his raw and indisciplined avatar — perhaps for the same reason, the Trump campaign didn’t accept the demand.

But keeping the minutiae of the debate rules aside, millions of Americans will tune in to watch the two candidates explain their vision at a time of tremendous economic uncertainty and geopolitical turbulence, in what has become a truly competitive race.

Harris’s month-long surge appears to have slowly plateaued. This is in line with a prediction made by a top Trump pollster, Tony Fabrizio, back in July that her “honeymoon” would end in early September after the positive media coverage and convention maximise returns and the race returns to the fundamentals. A New York Times/Siena poll released on Sunday showed Trump enjoying a narrow lead Harris in the national vote. The poll also showed that both candidates are almost tied, and any difference is within the margin of error, in all seven swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, and Nevada. A CBS poll in three of these swing states had a similar result.

All of this makes the debate even more critical for Harris than Trump, for she will have to use this big chance to allay apprehensions of voters and define herself. For Harris, the test on Tuesday is four-fold.

For one, she has to come across as authoritative, competent and smart. This is because Trump has spent time on the campaign trail defining her as a person of “low IQ”, called her “dumb”, claimed that the country will be destroyed under her, and repeatedly said she was the worst Vice President in American history — it is hard not to see the misogyny in the manner he has sought to frame her.

But given that the media had either ignored Harris or painted an unflattering image of her before her surprise elevation, most American voters still don’t know her well. And since Harris has spoken off the teleprompter and given only one media interview so far, there are doubts about how quick she is on her feet. As a former prosecutor, a debate may well be her natural home ground. But Harris has to show that to Americans by delivering a strong performance that shows her to be in command of facts, arguments and policies.

Harris’s second challenge is buttressing her centrist credentials. She has already backed fracking, promised to reduce the scale of the tax increase on capital gains compared to Biden, and promised a strong bill on border security. But the Times poll had a startling statistic. More voters seem to think Trump is a centrist as compared to conservative, than voters who think Harris is centrist as compared to liberal. This shows that the Trump campaign’s narrative of branding Harris as a “San Francisco radical, a communist, a comrade” may be striking a chord. Harris therefore will have to reach out to American voters in the middle, while keeping her left and progressive flank secure.

Harris’s third and most important challenge is the economy — her rather broad and mostly undefined positions on the economy, her absence of a strong record in the domain, and her association with the Biden administration are liabilities. The Times poll showed that 62% Americans disapprove of the Biden record; 56% voters see Harris as representing more of the same; 51% voters rated the conditions of the economy as poor; 50% of the voters polled said they trusted Trump on the economy while only 43% said they trusted Harris.

While Harris has made some proposals to deal with the cost of living crisis, how she counters the almost instinctive association many voters seem to have of Trump with a strong economy and low prices and her own credibility gap will be key. For this she will have to move from being seen as a candidate of continuity to a candidate of change, a hard ask given her current position as VP.

And finally, Harris’s main task is to play up her strengths — her fierce commitment to abortion and personal freedoms, her inclusive and moderate message — and showcase Trump as extreme, irresponsible, dangerous and untrustworthy. Harris’s campaign knows that if she wins, it won’t be as much because of the promise of her candidacy as the consolidation of the anti-Trump constituencies who are disturbed by the thought of the prospect of a second Trump presidency. She will therefore have to use the time judiciously to both define herself, not seem obsessed with him, yet attack him at every moment.

As the two candidates step on to the stage, here then is the state of the play. The race is too close to call. The base of both parties is broadly behind the two candidates. A former president who refused to accept the legitimacy of the 2020 election result and is now a convicted felon is in command of at least 46-47% of the national vote share. He is also more popular today than he ever was at this stage of the electoral cycle both in 2016 and 2020. A sitting Vice President, a woman of Black and South Asian heritage, is closer to occupying the most powerful executive office in the world than anyone from her background ever has. Her image has undergone a dramatic transformation in just weeks as apprehensions among supporters has given way to enthusiasm. But the challenge for both candidates now is to win over that tiny slice of swing voters who will determine the outcome.

This challenge is more crucial for Harris than Trump given the limited time she has had to define herself. And that is why how she projects herself as the candidate of change while being a part of the administration, a candidate of economic competence while battling an adverse economic mood, a candidate of centrist politics while overcoming her own record of progressive positions, and a candidate of moderation while facing the most unpredictable and extreme of candidates on the stage, will determine the outcome of the debate, and perhaps even the election.