American voters head to their polling booths on Tuesday to choose either Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as the country’s 47th president, on the final day of voting in what is the most consequential election for the US and the world in decades.
The battle between the former American president, a convicted felon who rejected the 2020 electoral outcome and is fighting on a platform to remake the American state, and the sitting American vice president, who is the first Black woman and the first person of Indian heritage to be a major party nominee, has been unprecedented.
Harris formally became the Democratic nominee only in August after a disastrous debate performance forced President Joe Biden out of the race. Despite a set of legal charges against him, Trump became the party nominee after decisively defeating all his challengers in the Republican primary and reshaping the party in the mould of his “Make America Great Again” movement.
Both candidates are spending the final hours of the campaign in a final sprint across swing states reinforcing their message. Harris is spending the final day in Pennsylvania, the most critical of the swing states with 19 electoral college votes, where she will address three rallies. Harris is expected to reiterate her promise to lower the cost of living, warn voters that Trump represents a threat to personal freedom, and continue to make reproductive freedom and abortion rights a central plank of her platform.
Trump is spending the day in Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina where his campaign expects him to keep the focus on the high prices and a spike in illegal immigration under Joe Biden-Harris administration, his promise to end foreign wars, and his commitment to tariffs to boost American manufacturing. But Trump, in what has been a constant feature of his political life, has departed from the script often, including in the past week. On Sunday, he suggested at a rally that he won’t mind if “fake news” was shot, hinting at violence against journalists just a day after he used violent rhetoric against a Republican critic, Liz Cheney.
Trump’s campaign has also complained of electoral malpractices in Pennsylvania in a reminder of the 2020 experience. That experience is what has caused a high degree of uncertainty around results, with accompanying fears of violence, especially by Trump supporters if he loses and refuses to accept the outcome.
In a post on X, Harris said that the margins are going to be close and the process of counting votes will take time. “Donald Trump falsely claimed victory in 2020, and we expect that he will do it again. We know that he is a liar — but the ballots will tell the truth. Stay patient, and know that every vote will be counted fairly.” She claimed that America’s electoral system was strong, partisan actors couldn’t interfere in it, and Democrats had a legal operation in place to protect the vote. “Together, we are going to win this election, and chart a new way forward.”
Trump did not deny that he could lose the election in a Monday morning hit on ABC News, where he was asked if he could lose. “I guess you could lose, can lose. I mean, that happens, right? But I think I have a pretty substantial lead, but, you could say, yeah, yeah, you could lose. Bad things could happen.” But his campaign supporters, including Steve Bannon, have urged Trump to pre-emptively announce his victory on election night.
In terms of the race, women have emerged as potentially the decisive voting bloc. Harris has a strong lead among women voters, largely due to the fury against the abortion verdict and a high turnout of women could see her win the race. If she does, she will be the first woman president in American history. On the other hand, Trump’s support among men across racial groups, largely driven by economic concerns and the projection of Trump as a stronger leader, has increased, and a surge in the support of this constituency could see him win.
The election will also boil down to which of the two candidates can keep their own base consolidated. Democrats face fractures due to the war in Gaza and disillusionment due to inflation and illegal immigration. Republicans face fractures due to the alienation of the older, more moderate wing of the party in the face of domination by Trump’s MAGA faction as well as the racist attacks against minorities that could keep swing voters away from the party.
The outcome will have profound implications for the world. If Trump wins, he has promised an immediate end to the war in Ukraine, possibly hinting at stopping US support unless Kyiv agrees on territorial concessions to Russia. A hawkish approach to China and a belligerent stance on trade with all partners is likely. With a likely Republican majority in the Senate, Trump is expect to get more ideologically committed personnel appointments and potentially reshape the judiciary again, while weakening the regulatory state, redoing the civil service and expanding his own power.
If Harris wins, she will continue Biden administration’s support for Ukraine, push Israel harder to stop the war in Gaza, and continue the methodical approach of investing in the Indo-Pacific. But under her administration, issues of human rights and international law are expected to get higher priority. Domestically, there will be greater signs of continuity both in policies and personnel.
The outcome essentially hinges on the outcome in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia as both candidates race to get to 270 votes in the electoral college. Polls remain within the margin of error, the optics around elections have rapidly changed with every passing day, and both a Trump or Harris win are entirely within the realm of possibility. As American voters head to make their choice, the world awaits.
