The Baku CoP is expected to find ways to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The last CoP at Dubai saw some progress on this contentious issue.
Two reports, released this week, should make for sobering reading for the climate negotiators who will convene in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku in about 10 days for UNFCCC’s CoP 29. The World Meteorological Organisation’s latest report confirms that 2023 was the hottest year on record. It concludes that GHG levels surged to a new record in 2023, “committing the planet to rising temperatures for many years to come”. Carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere faster than at any time experienced during human existence, rising by more than 10 per cent in just two decades. Another report has underlined the “immediate health impacts” of the soaring temperatures. The Lancet Countdown’s ninth report on health and climate reveals that “last year, people across the world faced unprecedented threats to their health from the rapidly changing climate”. The number of people over 65 who succumbed to heat-related ailments has risen by 167 per cent in the last three decades, according to the report.
CoP 29 will be a key moment for countries to present their updated national climate action plans under the Paris Agreement. A number of studies have emphasised that countries need to do more to keep global temperature rise within the 1.5 degrees target set by the Paris Pact. The UNFCCC’s latest analysis of climate plans, for instance, shows that current plans would result in emissions amounting to 51.5 gigatonne of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 — just 2.6 per cent below 2019 levels. The IPCC’s calculations show that GHG emissions need to be cut by 43 per cent below 2019 levels to attain the Paris Pact’s target. In the past two years, several developed countries have decommissioned coal-powered plants. However, this has been offset by the growing reliance of developing countries, including India and China, on coal. Even in the West, coal has not been completely replaced by renewables. Countries such as the UK and the US continue to use fossil fuels, albeit ones whose use leads to lower GHG emissions compared to coal. For instance, the GHG footprint of natural gas is 50 per cent less than coal. Similarly, Shale gas has a 33 per cent less carbon footprint than coal. Developed countries have also invited accusations of delaying immediate climate action with distant pledges such as Net Zero.
The Baku CoP is expected to find ways to accelerate the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. The last CoP at Dubai saw some progress on this contentious issue. But the summit’s final declaration was far too vague to serve as a guide for meaningful action. Rising temperatures and their health impacts should force delegates at Baku to raise the bar on global warming mitigation measures.
