The current government in Islamabad suffers from a crisis of democratic legitimacy.
Nov 29, 2024 05:06 IST First published on: Nov 29, 2024 at 05:05 IST
The current moment in Pakistan is marked by an almost tragic lack of political maturity in the major players. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf’s (PTI) march to Islamabad ended in violence and the death of at least six people, including security personnel. It began with a “final call” from the imprisoned former prime minister, Imran Khan. The Shehbaz Sharif government chose to deal with the protests with a clampdown and a show of force — Islamabad was fortified and barricaded. The PTI cadres and supporters, led by Imran Khan’s wife Bushra Bibi, were scattered. Rather than becoming a “do or die” moment, as the PTI leadership had painted it out to be, it has turned out to be a setback and their demand for the release of Imran Khan and other jailed leaders is no closer to being met. It would, however, be a mistake to see the seeming failure of the protest as a victory for either the Pakistan Army or government.
The current government in Islamabad suffers from a crisis of democratic legitimacy. However, Imran Khan’s government, too, was propped up by Rawalpindi, before he lost favour with the army. He, too, had targeted Opposition leaders when in power. Of course, the fact that the PTI emerged as the single-largest party in the last general elections despite its symbol being taken away and its candidates having to contest as independents, bears testimony to its popularity. That said, however, it would be a mistake to view the protests as an attempt at democratic reform for several reasons. First, the PTI has acted irresponsibly, exaggerating the number of injuries and deaths to its workers and supporters. Second, the PTI’s issues with the army are not about “changing the system”, its slogans invoking revolution notwithstanding. Rather, Imran Khan’s narrow aim is to return to power and perhaps even pressure the army, once more, into backing him. Finally, personal rivalries cannot be discounted in a system where institutional integrity and checks and balances are observed more in their breach: The chequered history of Imran and Army Chief Asim Munir goes back to when the latter was chief of the ISI — in fact, the former PM has painted the crackdown on his party as part of a personal vendetta against him.
For now, the army may have “succeeded” in controlling the protest — but its victory is almost certainly pyrrhic. The continuing support for Imran Khan is at least partially a symptom of a widespread disenchantment with the political class. The PTI vs government-army face-off and the turmoil it is causing has come when Pakistan desperately needs to get its act together and push through economic reforms. High inflation, dwindling forex reserves and the terms of the $7-billion IMF bailout package demand urgent action. Rawalpindi also has to deal with non-state actors of its own making on the border with Afghanistan and an insurgency in Balochistan. The structural reform Pakistan needs cannot occur without a political consensus behind it. There is no bailout that can fix a military and political class that refuses to see the long-term harm it is causing.
