What is already clear is that, with the death of Nasrallah, geopolitical equations in the region will shift considerably.
A region battered by violent conflict since the brutal October 7 attack on Israel by Hamas last year now holds its breath following the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the Shiite militant group Hezbollah, in Beirut in an Israeli airstrike. Will the incident, which has essentially left one of Israel’s most powerful foes in the region leaderless — the Lebanon-based group is in acute crisis, with the near-decimation of its senior ranks in recent weeks — push it to an even deadlier retaliation? Will it expand the theatre of conflict, drawing reprisals from Lebanon and Hezbollah’s main backer, Iran? Or will it offer a desperately needed pause in an embattled region, in which diplomacy can find and seize a vital opening?
What is already clear is that, with the death of Nasrallah, geopolitical equations in the region will shift considerably. Iran, which has armed and supported Hezbollah as part of its “Axis of Resistance” has vowed vengeance for the death of a man it describes as a “martyr”. Yet, its bluster belies a slowness to action, a seeming reluctance to retaliate against Israel’s maximalist tactics — including the deadly pager attacks less than a fortnight ago, which also injured the Iranian ambassador to Beirut. Even as it moves its Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei to a safe location, the prospect of prolonged engagement with Israel — which is bound to draw in the US as well, with all its military might — may well stay Iran’s hand. It is also a fact that while Nasrallah’s death may be mourned in Shia-dominated regions, few tears are being shed in the Sunni Arab world. States like Saudi Arabia and the UAE will be watching Iran and Israel’s next moves carefully and closely, weighing the gains to be potentially made in a more stable region, including through the expansion of economic opportunities beyond oil, against the mounting losses inflicted by greater escalation.
Since the conflict began nearly 12 months ago, red lines have been crossed, including and especially by Israel, which has consistently ignored any attempts, including by the US, to temper its aggression. The official death toll put out by authorities in Gaza crossed 41,000 this month. The already horrifying scale of the humanitarian crisis, with large-scale displacement of people and the spectre of famine, cannot be allowed to engulf the entire region. As the one-year anniversary of the conflict approaches, it is in the interest of not just the people of the region, but states around the world, including India — with the lives of 9 million Indians working in the region at risk, as well as strategic and economic interests — that work towards de-escalation begins.
© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd
First uploaded on: 30-09-2024 at 02:36 IST
