On the political front, Beijing is recognising the costs of its military aggression — in the form of deteriorating relations with a major Asian neighbour and lost business opportunities in one of the world’s fast-growing markets.
the latest round of talks with China on easing the military stand-off in eastern Ladakh raises hopes for the long-awaited breakthrough that could end the current political stalemate in bilateral relations. The Foreign Office has described the talks as “constructive and forward looking” and said that the two sides are looking to “narrow down differences and find early resolution of the outstanding issues”. The optimistic tone follows two meetings in quick succession between External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi. That these talks have been going on since the surprise Chinese aggression across the Line of Actual Control during the Spring of 2020 without restoration of status quo ante on the border suggests that India must temper its optimism. The well-known but divergent approaches of Delhi and Beijing to the negotiations reinforce the case for considerable caution in assessing the immediate prospects of a breakthrough.
India, which had cut off all political engagement and severely limited commercial ties with China since 2020, insists that the “state of the border” will reflect the “state of the bilateral relations.” China has argued against India’s condition that settling the border stand-off must precede renewal of bilateral relations. China has called, instead, for putting the border question in its “proper place” and going ahead with the “normalisation” of the relationship. The hint of hope arises out of the assessment that Beijing and Delhi may be inching towards a finessing of the situation that could take them to a common ground. Over the last many rounds, the two militaries have “disengaged” from several friction points that emerged from Chinese aggression and the Indian riposte in 2020. The current focus appears to be on resolving two legacy issues that arose from earlier military crises in Depsang and Demchok in eastern Ladakh. Military experts have long pointed to solutions that both sides could live with.
On the political front, Beijing is recognising the costs of its military aggression — in the form of deteriorating relations with a major Asian neighbour and lost business opportunities in one of the world’s fast-growing markets. Delhi, too, sees that the lack of normal engagement with Beijing, at a time when most major powers, including India’s Quad partners, are talking to China, is problematic. A potential deal involves China agreeing to ease the military stand-off in eastern Ladakh and India restoring political dialogue and ending the constraints on commerce with China. The NDA government’s annual Economic Survey as well as several industry groups have been pressing the government to take a fresh look at the economic measures imposed against Beijing in the summer of 2020. As Delhi looks for a long-awaited closure to the current phase of tensions with Beijing, it must reach out to the Opposition parties, the foreign policy community and the public at large to explain the contours of the potential deal and make the case for it in terms of India’s national interest. Talks with China have always been shrouded in mystery that even experts find hard to decode. The political polarisation within the country and the hyper-nationalism that has run unchecked over the last decade could derail even a sensible arrangement with China.
