The well-distributed rains, both spatially and temporally, have led to increased area sown under all big-ticket kharif crops — paddy, pulses, maize and oilseeds.
The southwest monsoon season had a poor start, with all-India rainfall in June 10.9 per cent below the long period average (“normal”) for the month. The rains were subpar everywhere, save the South, Maharashtra, west Madhya Pradesh and east Rajasthan. But as El Niño ebbed and transitioned into a “neutral” phase, July recorded 9 per cent above-normal rains, with all regions, barring the North and East, receiving robust precipitation. The current month has been even better — 26 per cent above normal rainfall, taking the cumulative surplus for the season (June-September) to 6.3 per cent till August 12. The deficiency is now largely in Bihar, Jharkhand and parts of Northwest India where farmers have access to irrigation. In short, the monsoon has been good so far, while also helping recharge groundwater tables and fill up the country’s major reservoir dams to 64.7 per cent of full storage capacity — more than 60.8 per cent last year and the 53.7 per cent 10-year-average for this time.
The well-distributed rains, both spatially and temporally, have led to increased area sown under all big-ticket kharif crops — paddy, pulses, maize and oilseeds. There are exceptions like cotton, whose acreage has fallen more due to farmers switching to groundnut, maize or paddy: Pink bollworm insect attacks, and no significant yield-protecting technologies after Bt cotton, have made them hesitant in growing the fibre crop. With global weather agencies predicting a La Niña — El Niño’s “cool cousin” generally known to boost rainfall activity in India — to develop by September and persist through winter and spring, the prospects appear encouraging for the upcoming rabi cropping season as well. The last El Niño from April 2023 to almost May this year not only suppressed the monsoon and post-monsoon rains, but also probably contributed to the winter’s late arrival and higher-than-normal temperatures, especially in Central and South Peninsular India. A La Niña, hopefully, will deliver the opposite.
A munificent monsoon and no heat waves will provide welcome relief on food inflation. The latter ruled above 8 per cent year on year for eight straight months from November 2023, falling to 5.4 per cent in July only thanks to a high base inflation of 11.5 per cent last year for the same month. The Reserve Bank of India has refrained from cutting its interest rates — rightly so, knowing how food prices matter in influencing inflation expectations among Indian households and firms. A bumper kharif harvest and benign global prices with no fresh supply shocks could ease food inflationary pressures going forward. That should provide room for the government to lift export and stocking limit curbs on cereals, sugar and pulses, even while keeping the zero/low duty import window open on all major food commodities.
© The Indian Express Pvt Ltd
First uploaded on: 13-08-2024 at 07:17 IST
