Exit Polls vs Actual Results: Seven times when they were totally off the mark

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As the nation awaits the official results of the recent state elections in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, exit poll predictions are generating significant attention. However, history has shown that exit polls can be misleading, with their forecasts often diverging from actual outcomes. Here are five notable instances where exit poll predictions differed significantly from the final election results.

Lok Sabha Elections 2024

In the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, at least 12 exit polls predicted a landslide victory for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) with some even predicted ‘400-paar’. However, the actual results were strikingly different. The NDA finished with 293 seats, far below the predictions. The BJP, in particular, failed to secure a simple majority on its own, winning only 240 seats, a loss of 63 from their previous tally of 303 in 2019. Meanwhile, the Congress-led INDIA bloc claimed 235 seats, further proving the exit polls inaccurate.

Read More: Haryana Exit Poll Live Updates

2023 Chhattisgarh Assembly Elections

In a surprising turn, the BJP regained control in Chhattisgarh in the 2023 Assembly elections, despite exit polls predicting an easy win for the Congress. The BJP secured over 50 seats, defying the projections. In Madhya Pradesh, only a few exit polls correctly predicted a decisive win for the BJP, which ousted the Congress after its five-year rule.

2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections

After the demonetization decision, exit polls for the 2017 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections predicted a hung assembly, with the BJP emerging as the largest party. In reality, the BJP won an overwhelming majority of 325 seats, far exceeding the poll predictions.

2015 Bihar Assembly Elections

The 2015 Bihar Assembly elections had high voter turnout and were fiercely contested. Exit polls suggested a close contest with no clear winner. However, the actual results saw a decisive victory for the RJD-JDU-Congress alliance, with the RJD emerging as the largest party. This outcome was a stark contrast to the tight race predicted by exit polls.

Read More: Video: Women Molested During Deepender Hooda Rally

2015 Delhi Assembly Elections

The 2015 Delhi Assembly elections also demonstrated the unreliability of exit polls. While the exit polls did predict a win for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), they did not anticipate the scale of AAP’s victory. The party won 67 out of 70 seats, a landslide that no exit poll had forecasted.

2014 Lok Sabha Elections

The 2014 Lok Sabha elections also witnessed significant discrepancies between exit poll predictions and actual outcomes. While exit polls predicted a victory for the BJP-led NDA, they estimated the alliance would fall short of a majority, with predictions ranging between 261 and 289 seats. The final results, however, saw the NDA winning 336 seats, with BJP alone securing a majority. The Congress faced a historic defeat, winning just 44 seats.

Lok Sabha Elections 2004

In 2004, the BJP government led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee called for early elections, buoyed by wins in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan, and campaigning with the slogan “India Shining.” Exit polls predicted a comfortable majority for the NDA, forecasting between 240 to 275 seats. However, the actual results surprised many, with the NDA securing only 187 seats. Contrary to predictions, Congress and its allies won 216 seats.

Read More: Haryana Exit Polls Highlights: Cong or BJP, which party Haryana is Favouring?

These errors underscore the uncertainty of exit polls. While they generate widespread discussion, the actual election results can vary significantly. As the nation waits for the outcomes of the current elections, the history of exit polls serves as a reminder that final results often defy expectations.

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