There is a collateral damage that such surveys have in times when large sections of TV media are seen as megaphones of those in power and have lost their credibility.
Exit polls are an important feature of the electoral process in a democracy. They help gauge public opinion, provide important clues on which way the wind is blowing. But when their results are so wide off the mark — on Saturday, several polls had predicted that the BJP-led NDA would get a roughly two-thirds majority, with some even projecting the NDA would touch 400 seats — it is only natural for questions to be raised. More so when they have shown the power to move markets. On Monday, the BSE Sensex had surged, ending the day up 2,507 points or 3.39 per cent, as investors were enthused with these polls, which indicated a return of the incumbent with a comfortable majority. But, on Tuesday, when the actual results were declared, and reality was different by a dramatic margin, the markets tanked 5.74 per cent.
Lok Sabha Election Results 2024
There is always the possibility of barometers going wrong. However, this is not a one-off. There have been several instances in the past of a marked divergence in the results of exit polls and actual electoral outcomes — as it was in the case of the Lok Sabha elections in 2004, and in assembly elections in Bihar in 2015 and Chhattisgarh in 2023. Pollsters need to urgently look within. They must carefully examine how the sample households/respondents are chosen and whether they are an accurate representation of the voting population. They must investigate if some sections of voters are underrepresented in their analysis. Is that why they failed to capture the swings in seats? What was the error in sampling? And how were the questions framed and the responses elicited? After all, few had expected the INDIA alliance to touch 200 seats. Stricter disclosure norms regarding the funding of these organisations and surveys also need to be put in place. There is a collateral damage that such surveys have in times when large sections of TV media are seen as megaphones of those in power and have lost their credibility. Their alignment with the exit polls puts another question mark on their reputation.
Their performance in this election should prompt soul-searching among pollsters. The absence of convincing answers will only lend credence to conspiracy theories that question their motives. They must go back to the drawing board. After such a drubbing, they must answer tough questions to continue to be taken seriously.
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