The escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has entered a dangerous phase with the launch of “limited, localised and targeted ground raids” by the Israeli Defence Forces against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon, the first since the full-blown war between them in July 2006.
In a series of precision attacks, Israel was able to eliminate the entire top political and military leadership of Hezbollah, including its supreme leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Israel further intensified its military operations, conducting extensive airstrikes across Lebanon, including in Beirut’s southern suburbs.
Israel’s strategic objectives in Lebanon seem to be multifaceted, driven by both immediate security concerns and long-term regional goals. The primary aim was to degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities by dismantling its military infrastructure and diminishing its ability to carry out an October 7-style attack on its territory. Israel also wants to push the group beyond the Litani River and create a buffer zone to enhance the security of its northern areas to encourage the return of tens of thousands of Israelis displaced from their homes.
The scale, intensity and effectiveness of Israel’s military strikes on Hezbollah’s top leadership and its military targets in Lebanon seem to have caught Hezbollah and Iran off guard, as evidenced by their initial hesitation in responding to events. The killing of Nasrallah, a very close ally of Iran who considered Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as his spiritual guide under the concept of Velayat-e-Faqih, caused major embarrassment to Iran and gave a big blow to its “Axis of Resistance”.
The Israel-Hizbollah conflict has the potential to transform into a wider regional war in a region that is already volatile with several ongoing conflicts in Gaza, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. This has prompted a flurry of diplomatic activity from the international community, with efforts intensifying to de-escalate the situation and prevent another human catastrophe like the one in Gaza.
Already, the crisis has triggered a fresh wave of displacement in Lebanon, affecting more than one million people, including thousands of Syrians who are forced to cross back into their country from where they had once escaped seeking shelter in Lebanon.
The United States, while supporting Israel’s right to defend itself, emphasised the necessity of preventing a broader regional conflict and insisted on a 21-day ceasefire, backed by other G7 countries. Germany, France, Russia, China, and India have all called for preventing regional escalation. The Arab and Islamic countries have come out as a divided house, as usual, in the present crisis, with a cautious stance adopted by the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, as compared to the relatively bellicose posturing by Iran and Turkey.
Saudi Arabia expressed “great concern” over the developments, urging all parties to exercise maximum restraint. Riyadh’s measured response reflects its wariness of escalating tensions that could further destabilise the region, potentially impacting its security and economic interests. Qatar was more forthcoming in condemning Israel “in the strongest terms,” reflecting its historically more independent foreign policy within the GCC.
Turkey’s denouncement of Israel’s operations in Lebanon as part of a strategy of “genocide, occupation, and invasion” reflects its continued posturing as a defender of Islamic interests, potentially challenging Saudi Arabia’s traditional role.
Iran and its allies Iraq, Yemen, and Lebanon declared a national mourning on the death of Nasrallah. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei warned that Nasrallah’s death “will not go unavenged”, while President Pezeshkian stated that his death “will only further strengthen the resistance”. These diverse responses between the Sunnis and Shias underscore the fragmented nature of West Asian geopolitics and the challenges in forging a united Arab or Muslim response to the conflict.
However, Iran’s unprecedented retaliation against Israel with a barrage of nearly 200 ballistic missiles marks a major escalation in tensions between the two countries. This was Iran’s largest-ever single ballistic missile attack on Israel, the second direct attack on Israel since the April 2024 attack that used a combination of drones and missiles. Although the Iranian attack was mainly thwarted, as most of the missiles were intercepted and neutralised by Israel’s Iron Dome, David’s Sling and Arrow 3 defence systems, some missiles reportedly landed in central and southern Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that Iran would “pay the price” for the attack and promised to respond forcefully.
Iran’s proxies, Hamas and Houthis, have praised the missile attack on Israel, describing it as a demonstration of solidarity with Palestine and a challenge to Israeli dominance in the region. Despite sustaining heavy losses and getting bogged down with the leadership transition, Hezbollah is keen to project that it is back on its feet and capable of playing the role of an effective deterrent against Israel, announcing that it is ready for escalation following the Iranian attack.
Hezbollah’s interim leader, Sheikh Naim Qassem, has vowed to continue its resistance activities against Israel, even indicating that these efforts have increased following Nasrallah’s death. Hezbollah has also claimed to have attacked Israeli soldiers in some border areas as they were carrying out the ground incursion. The attack marks a significant escalation in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran’s proxies in the region, with growing concerns that it could lead to a broader regional war involving multiple countries, which the world is not prepared to handle.
As the UN Security Council has scheduled an emergency meeting on the situation in West Asia and the GCC announced an extraordinary Ministerial Council meeting in Doha to discuss the latest developments in the region, the European Union has called for an immediate ceasefire.
The situation is unfolding very fast and the next few days and weeks will be crucial as Israel calibrates its response to the Iranian missile attack.
India has a deep interest in the West Asia region, its largest trading partner, which supplies more than half of its energy and three-quarters of its fertiliser requirements. Besides, the region is home to a nearly nine million workforce from India. Its broader economic and defence engagements, such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, the Duqum project in Oman and the numerous initiatives in the energy and defence sectors, are directly dependent on peace and stability in the region.
The immediate task would be ensuring the safety and security of around 3,000 Indian nationals in Lebanon and neighbouring countries. India has to be prepared to mount another challenging evacuation operation, like Operation Sukoon undertaken in 2006, which evacuated nearly 1,800 Indians along with Sri Lankans, Nepalis and other nationals. Countries such as Germany and France have already started pulling their citizens out of Lebanon.
Ausaf Sayeed is a former ambassador of India to Saudi Arabia and Yemen.The views expressed are personal
