NEW DELHI: Can Arvind Kejriwal sweep Delhi elections once again to score a hat-trick of victories or will a determined BJP succeed in stopping the
AAP
juggernaut this time around with the Congress playing a “spoiler” for the ruling party?
The AAP and the Congress had contested the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in Delhi together but have since then gone their separate ways making the February 5 assembly elections a three-way contest. The friends-turned-rivals have openly engaged in ugly spats, much to the delight of the BJP. While the Delhi Congress leaders have unleashed all-out attack against Kejriwal, the AAP chief has accused the grand-old-party of “secret coordination” with the BJP.
Kejriwal has asserted that Delhi assembly elections is a contest between the BJP and AAP, playing down any possible challenge from the Congress. His assessment may not be completely off the mark, given the performance of Congress in the last two assembly elections where it failed to even open its account and saw its vote share dip to under 5%.
But the Congress, which is still smarting under the shock defeats it suffered in Haryana and Maharashtra last year, is going all out to make its presence felt in the Delhi elections. The party has already announced names of 50 candidates and has fielded Sandeep Dikshit, son of three time chief minister Sheila Dikshit, against Arvind Kejriwal. Reacting to Congress’s candidates list, AAP claimed “it looks as if it was finalised at the BJP office.” The Delhi Congress leaders have stepped up their attacks on AAP government and Kejriwal targeting it over issues of corruption and governance. The grand-old-party has promised welfare schemes – Pyari Didi Yojna and Jeevan Raksha Yojna – in line with the recent trends to woo people of Delhi. Congress national leadership, which was missing from action till now, is also planning to take the plunge. Reports say Rahul Gandhi will hold his first rally in Delhi next week.
So, should Kejriwal completely dismiss the Congress challenge?
Well, a look at the data of the last three elections shows that the rise of AAP in Delhi has been congruous with the decline of the Congress. The AAP emerged on Delhi’s political scene in 2013 winning 28 seats with a vote share of 29.49%. The Congress tally in 2013 came down to 8 seats from 43 that it won in 2008. It’s vote share also dipped from 40.31% in 2008 to 24.55% in 2013. The BJP on the other hand saw a marginal dip in vote share of around 3% but gained 8 seats taking its tally from 23 to 31 seats in 2013.
In 2015, Congress suffered a 15% decline in its vote share while the AAP saw its support base rise by around 15%. The BJP vote share did not change much registering a decline of just 1%. Clearly, this was an indication of Congress supporters moving towards AAP in a big way.
In 2020, the Congress vote share declined further by almost half to 4.26%. However, this time around AAP’s support base remained almost the same but the BJP’s vote share increased by over 6%. This signalled the strengthening of the BJP at the expense of the Congress.
In terms of seats won also, AAP was way ahead of both the BJP and the Congress winning 67 and 62 seats out of 70 in the last two elections. This huge gap perhaps explains AAP’s confidence going into the February 5 electoral battle.
But Kejriwal’s party, which faces the prospect of anti-incumbency after being in power for 10 years, should be wary of an improved Congress performance in the elections. If the Congress manages to better its vote share it could end up cutting into the AAP’s vote-bank which includes slum dwellers, Purvanchalis, Muslims and also residents of unauthorised colonies. Any increase in Congress’s vote share may not translate into dramatic increase in party’s seat share in the assembly, but would definitely make the contest in some seats difficult for the other two main contenders. Since AAP has 62 seats in the assembly, it could end up suffering more than the BJP has only 8 members at present. The saffron party could gain from the three-way division of votes.
The BJP, after the 2024 Lok Sabha setback, has made an impressive electoral comeback – creating history in both Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is leading the BJP campaign, has already held two rallies unleashing a vicious attack on the AAP government. The saffron camp is confident of continuing with its winning spree.
Kejriwal, who has campaigned with great success in the last two assembly elections, has also gone all out trying to woo all sections in Delhi in his bid to score a hat-trick in Delhi. He would hope that the Congress continues to remain on the fringes as in the last two elections and not end up playing a spoiler for the AAP.
