Climate crisis: A plan B needed for wild weather 

Extreme and unseasonal weather events have dotted 10 months of 2024 before the countries in the world met in Baku, Azerbaijan, to discuss the climate crisis. Earlier, in the last leg of the monsoon, it felt like 52 degrees in Guwahati. Assam and parts of other northeastern states were hit by an unprecedented heat wave in September that claimed several lives and forced schools to shut, whereas, in the same period, neighbouring West Bengal bore the brunt of flooding in six districts. Remember, throughout January, there was not a flake of snow in Gulmarg and other places in Kashmir. This was followed by a hellish summer that saw a record number of heatwaves and heat-related deaths nationwide. Leh, a cold desert, was too hot for flights to take off. Delhi’s heat index touched 53°C, recording the longest heatwave streak, which lasted over a month (May 14-June 21).  

Similarly, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Chennai, and smart cities like Vadodara, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Kota, Nashik, and Surat fell apart on a heavy rainy day. The tragedy in Wayanad, Kerala, and other heavy landslides in Sikkim, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand should serve as a reminder that extreme weather is a harsh reality. And not just India, Australia experienced its hottest winter at 41.6°C, and Bandar-e Mahshahr, Iran, reported a heat index of 66.7°C in August. Mount Fuji remained snowless for the longest time, and flash floods in Spain and in the Sahara are grim reminders that we are drifting deeper into a climate catastrophe. 

The world experienced a new global record of unprecedented heat for a continuous 14 months, from June 2023-July 2024, when the Earth’s average temperature reached or exceeded 1.5°C above the pre-industrial era. In all likelihood, the mean global temperature in 2024-2028 will exceed 1.5°C, undermining the 2015 iconic Paris Agreement pledge to try and keep temperatures from rising by more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Fossil fuels are toxic for the climate, and to stay below 1.5°C warming, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions need to be cut by 43% by 2030, which seems unlikely now with another failed climate conference. India rejected the $300-billion climate finance target pushed through by the developed nations, calling it an optical illusion. At the same conference, Haitham Al Ghais, the secretary general of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), said crude oil and natural gas were “gifts from God”. A concrete plan to reduce emissions did not materialise, and may never happen as Donald Trump returns to the White House in 2025. Trump is likely to accelerate the production of fossil fuels and withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement. 

Global climate talks began in 1991, but GHG emissions and global temperature have been rising faster than ever. GHG emissions are now at an all-time high with no signs of slowing down as governments acorss the world hop from one environment summit to another. Further, not a single target on climate, biodiversity, or sustainability has been met. Only the goalposts keep changing, with new jargon and timelines. An analysis of 1,500 climate policies (in force between 1998 and 2022) reveals that they have done little to prevent the acceleration of the climate crisis. The irony is despite all the talk on targets, clean energy, and the phasing out fossil fuels, the climate crisis is unfolding at a frantic pace. 

This year, domestic coal production rose by 5.79%, imports were up by 2.2%, while the country’s renewable energy capacity crossed 200 GW, on track to reach 500GW by 2030. But, according to Czech-Canadian scientist Vaclav Smil, energy transitions take decades, and not mere years; the promises of accelerated energy transitions in large economies will have a protracted realisation due to technical and infrastructural imperatives and unforeseen socioeconomic issues. At a three-day Oil and Gas Expo in December in Delhi, India’s role in future global oil and gas markets will be discussed, with the energy demand projected to double by 2050.  

Climate scientists are giving up hope. No one thinks limiting warming to 1.5°C is possible. It is time to look at smaller, more tangible targets for mitigation, such as cutting global food waste that itself is responsible for 10% of GHGs and managing urban waste. About 60% of India’s population will be living in cities by 2050. So, climate-resilient design and environmental sustainability in public infrastructure must be given emphasis. At the time the Baku talks were on, the Green Building Congress in Bengaluru slipped under the news radar: These events where “green” policy for infrastructure is discussed deserve better traction if we want a climate-resilient future. 

Chasing net zero will not help. Artificial intelligence (AI) and other new technology that we hope will help ameliorate our climate pains are energy guzzlers, and, at least as of now, energy is rarely green. For example, the growth of solar and wind energy means more mining for lithium, cobalt, copper, silver, nickel, and other minerals, which will leave its own massive carbon footprint and deplete forest cover, thereby affecting the planet’s carbon absorption capacity. Against such a backdrop, can we confidently say we will live to see 2070, the year India hopes to become net zero? 

While a third of our economy relies on nature, we can’t grow by exploiting the environment. We must have a Plan B, for there is no escape from extreme weather events turbocharged by the climate crisis: the excessive heat, rain (or the lack of it), and now the severe winter, signalled by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) due to La Niña. At this pace, 2024, the warmest year on record, will surpass the previous year as the year with the most number of days that saw extreme weather events in India. The number was 318 days out of 365 in 2023.  

Ananda Banerjee is an author, artist, and wildlife conservationist. The views expressed are personal