By Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus
/ CBS News
Analyzing the road to victory in Pennsylvania
With just a week to go, it’s a tied race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Pennsylvania — the biggest electoral vote prize of the battleground states in the 2024 election.
Trump is helped by voters’ negative perceptions of today’s economy and by the fact that more voters think they would be better off financially with him in the White House than Harris. When they look back, far more Pennsylvania voters say things were going well in the U.S. during Trump’s presidency than say that today.
Harris leads Trump among voters who say the state of democracy and abortion are major factors, and she has an edge on some personal qualities. More think she has the cognitive health to serve as president than think Trump does, and voters are more apt to see Harris’ positions as reasonable and to see Trump’s as extreme.
And while Harris has not convinced most Pennsylvania voters that she would strengthen U.S. democracy (Trump hasn’t either), slightly more think Trump will weaken it.
There’s been little movement in the race here since September.
Issues
Looking back, more Pennsylvania voters say things were going well in the country when Trump was president and those who feel that way are backing him in big numbers. Trump maintains his advantage on who would make people better off financially and leads Harris big among those who cite the U.S.-Mexico border as a major factor in their vote.
The state of democracy is a major factor for Pennsylvania voters too, along with other issues, but neither Harris nor Trump have a clear lead on who would strengthen U.S. democracy, should they become president. Slightly more voters think Trump will weaken it than say that about Harris, and that is particularly so among those who call democracy a major factor in their vote.
Personal qualities
But Trump’s positions, more than Harris’, are seen as extreme by more Pennsylvania voters, and those who hold that view are overwhelmingly backing Harris.
More broadly, more voters like the way Harris handles herself personally than the way Trump does. (Although neither candidate is liked personally by a majority of voters).
And this does help Harris to a degree. Nearly all the voters who like Harris are voting for her.
For Trump, though, there are a quarter of voters who dislike the way he handles himself personally but are voting for him anyway, so not liking the way Trump behaves is not a disqualifier for many. Only 5% of voters who dislike Harris are backing her.
Voter groups
In this neck-and-neck race, Harris is performing well with many of the same groups President Biden excelled with in 2020, and Trump is retaining much of the support of those key groups who backed him.
White voters without a college degree (more than 4 in 10 voters here ) continue to be some of Trump’s strongest backers. Most think they will be better off financially with his policies than with Harris’ and are backing him by a wide margin.
Harris leads Trump among White voters with a college degree, who comprise just over a third of the electorate, a group that has been trending more Democratic in recent elections.
This CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted with a statewide representative sample of 1,273 registered voters in Pennsylvania interviewed between October 22-28, 2024. The sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, education and geographic region, based on U.S. Census data and voter files, as well as to past vote. The margin of error for registered voters is ±3.6 points.
