Carnage to Good Morning: How to get ready for Trump’s shock & awe

Delhi, like the rest of the world, must be prepared to discard many of its assumptions, old and new, about the nature of America and deal with the consequences of the deep changes in the internal and external orientation of the United States.

When he spoke at his inaugural in 2017, Trump painted the United States in dark colours and brooded about the “American carnage”; this time he is utterly confident about what he wants to do at home and abroad: restore American primacy. With greater experience and fewer constraints than the first time, Trump is convinced he can make big moves quickly and decisively. Expect him to promise that it will be “morning in America” again.

Trump is said to be ready with nearly 100 “executive orders” (like the Indian government’s ordinances) to be issued in the first few days of his presidency to launch a tenure of shock and awe in the White House. He plans to sign some of them on the very first day.

Unlike in the 2016 elections, Trump has won the popular vote in 2024 and led his party to majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. That he has come back against great odds in the face of a prolonged campaign of political vilification and legal warfare by the Democratic Party, has given him a rare sway over America, at least for now.

With the administration of Joe Biden and the Democratic Party in disarray in Washington since the November election, Trump has held court at his residence in Mar-a-Lago, Florida for the last few weeks. America’s rich and powerful have been tripping over each other to kiss Trump’s ring and curry favour.

In a break from custom, many global personalities will be present at Trump’s inauguration this time around. Among them are the Chinese vice president; the presidents of Argentina and El Salvador; prime minister of Italy, and the foreign ministers of the Quad security forum, including India’s Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

While some view his foreign policy forays in the last few weeks–from Gaza to Greenland–as political bluster, others see them as producing results. The ceasefire in Gaza, which began today, is attributed at least in part to Trump’s threat that “all hell will break loose in the Middle East” if there was no agreement to release the hostages. If his outrageous claim to Greenland was widely dismissed as an imperialist fantasy, the Greenlanders have signalled their readiness to discuss a new relationship with Trump’s Washington.

Delhi and the other world capitals will be looking at major Trump moves in five distinct areas in the next few days.

One: Action on immigration that has been central to Trump’s campaign in 2024. Trump is expected to begin the process of deporting illegal immigrants and criminal gangs. It will not be easy to implement his promise to launch the biggest deportation in American history. This is a massive exercise and is likely to face several legal and practical hurdles; but he could certainly begin by lurching at some low-hanging fruit to demonstrate political intent.

Two: Trump has repeatedly underlined his intention to impose wide-ranging tariffs on US imports–some universal and some directed at specific countries like China. Trump and many of his advisers see tariffs as an instrument to produce substantial changes in the behaviour of other states. The aims include the reduction of trade deficits and promotion of manufacturing at home. He also wants to use the tariff level to force treaty allies in Europe and Asia to boost defence spending and make other geopolitical concessions. Sceptics, however, fear Trump will trigger costly trade wars.

Three: Dismantling the expansive green agenda of the Biden Administration including the reversal of several executive orders issued in the last few days on limiting the development of energy resources. Trump believes reviving the US energy sector–including hydrocarbons and nuclear–is critical to his agenda of boosting economic growth and creating more jobs. While the liberal are opposed to this, the working class and trade unions are fully behind the Trump plans to reboot energy and mining sectors.

Four: Deconstructing the administrative state. Trump is expected to move quickly towards a downsizing of the US government at three levels–spending, head count, and regulations. While the first two might take time, it will be much easier to act quickly on cutting down regulations. Silicon Valley wants the government to get out of the way to facilitate innovation and restore American leadership in advanced technologies. The culture warriors on the right want Trump to start battling the ‘woke virus’ that has infected civil society in the last few years.

Five: Peace through strength. Trump is emphatic in rejecting the “globalism” of the traditional foreign policy establishment that he believes has pushed America into squandering blood and treasure around the world. That does not mean Trump wants America to retreat from the global stage. His focus is on restoring American military deterrence against adversaries. At the same time, Trump is open to negotiating political accommodation with Russia, China, Iran and North Korea on terms that will expand America’s room for manoeuvre. This is not a combination that India and the world are familiar with but they will have to find ways of managing the consequences of change in Trump’s America.