As the US approaches another pivotal presidential election, the influence of Donald Trump on American policies and global dynamics remains profound. Whether he secures a second term or not, Trump’s imprint on key areas such as China relations, trade policies, and foreign wars is likely to persist. This upcoming election is widely regarded as one of the most consequential in recent decades, given the significance of the issues at hand and their potential ramifications extending far beyond American borders.
The current political landscape in the US is marked by intense polarisation and deep-seated divisions within the American establishment. This fragmentation raises concerns about the likelihood of disputed election results, especially if the margin of victory is narrow. Although political momentum is in Trump’s favour, the difference in the opinion polls between them is within the margin of error. Close results, particularly in swing states, could lead to legal challenges and court interventions, further straining the fabric of American democracy.
A troubling American trend has emerged in recent years — the reluctance to accept electoral defeat. Trump faced widespread criticism for his refusal to formally acknowledge his loss in the 2020 election. However, it’s worth noting that Democrats were politically hesitant to reconcile with Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016. In the aftermath of that election, Democrats and liberal media outlets launched a campaign alleging Russian interference, attempting to undermine Trump’s legitimacy from the outset of his presidency.
This narrative on the “foreign hand” is clearly not unique to Indian politics; it’s a tactic employed globally, including in America, to discredit political opponents. A recent example is the campaign highlighting Elon Musk’s alleged “Russian links” as he uses his platform X (formerly Twitter) to boost Trump’s candidacy and is now a major donor to the Republican campaign.
Democratic presidential nominee and US Vice President Kamala Harris. (AP)
The stakes in this election are high, with Democrats warning that a second Trump term could pose a threat to America’s democratic institutions. Trump’s supporters, however, view these claims as hypocritical, arguing that Democrats have weaponised executive agencies and the judicial system against Trump both during and after his first term.
Those of us outside the US must look beyond the “horse race” and understand the unfolding structural changes in American politics. Despite extensive global media coverage, it’s important to remember that we in India are observers, not participants, in this electoral process. The question of which candidate or party might be “better” for India is largely academic, as foreign entities cannot really influence the outcome.
Given the US’s significant role in global economics and politics, even minor shifts in American policy can have far-reaching consequences for other nations. The international community, including India, must be prepared to engage constructively with whoever assumes the presidency in January, regardless of personal or ideological preferences.
To effectively navigate the post-election landscape, it’s essential to understand the various factions within American politics: Liberals, conservatives, nationalists, internationalists, free traders, protectionists, globalists, America-Firsters, interventionists, and isolationists. The shifting coalitions among these groups will shape the direction of US policy in the coming years.
Paradoxically, despite strong opposition to Trump and his policies, the Democratic administration under Biden has continued many of Trump’s major initiatives from 2017-2021. This continuity is particularly evident in areas such as great power politics, globalisation, and foreign wars. This trend reflects a fundamental internal reassessment of America’s global interests and priorities that transcends party lines.
The Trump administration marked a significant shift in US foreign policy focus, moving away from counter-terrorism and nation-building efforts towards confronting strategic rivals, particularly China and Russia. This reorientation has largely been maintained under the Biden administration, indicating a bipartisan consensus on assessing the primary threats to US security and prosperity.
Trump’s challenge to the established orthodoxy of free trade and globalisation has also left a lasting impact. The Biden administration has embraced aspects of industrial policy and promises to restructure the global economic order to benefit the American middle class. This shift represents a significant departure from decades of US-led economic liberalisation.
The decline of economic multilateralism, symbolised by the diminishing influence of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), is another legacy of the Trump era that continues under Biden. This trend is likely to persist, with the potential for even more dramatic changes if Trump returns to office with plans for significant tariff increases.
On matters of war and peace, there’s a growing convergence between the two major parties, despite differences in rhetoric. If Trump had looked for a way out of Afghanistan, Biden decided to pull out within months after he took charge of the White House. Both Democrats and Republicans now favour avoidance of direct military involvement abroad, as evidenced by the increasing support for finding a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine.
Regarding international alliances, while Trump and Kamala Harris may differ in their formal stances, both are likely to pressure allies for more equitable burden-sharing in collective defence arrangements. This reflects a broader shift in American thinking about the costs and benefits of its global military commitments. While Harris might be nice in making demands on allies and adversaries, Trump will be hard-knuckled.
America’s evolving stance on great power relations, globalisation, and alliances is compelling other major powers to reassess their own positions. This pressure to adapt will likely intensify under the next president, regardless of party affiliation, as the US continues to redefine its role on the global stage.
The upcoming US presidential election is not just a choice between two candidates or parties; it represents a critical juncture in the ongoing transformation of American politics and foreign policy. The enduring influence of Trump’s approach, regardless of the election outcome, signals a fundamental shift in how the US engages with the world. As global observers and stakeholders, it is crucial to understand these changes and prepare for a new era of international relations shaped by an America that is more inward-looking, economically nationalist, and strategically focused on great power competition.
The challenge for the rest of the world will be to navigate this new landscape, balancing their own interests with the realities of a changing American outlook. For countries like India, this may present both challenges and opportunities, requiring astute diplomacy and a clear-eyed assessment of their strategic priorities in an increasingly complex global order.
The writer is a contributing editor on international affairs for The Indian Express
