C Raja Mohan writes: Five Eyes fracture and the Trump disruption in Western intelligence

The bilateral agreement was expanded to cover the rest of the “Anglosphere” and focused on collecting and analysing Signals intelligence of common interest. Canada joined in 1948 followed by Australia and New Zealand in 1956. The Anglosphere refers to the English-speaking world, once part of the British empire, which shares common traditions of politics, law and culture. During the Cold War, the Five Eyes played a critical role in monitoring Soviet and Warsaw Pact communications. After 9/11, the Five Eyes expanded its scope to cover counterterrorism and cybersecurity. In the past decade, the alliance turned its focus toward China, warning against the risks posed by companies like Huawei.

In 2018, the Five Eyes’ intelligence chiefs publicly cautioned that Huawei’s involvement in 5G networks posed a security risk — leading to a coordinated push to exclude the company from Western infrastructure and persuade friendly nations in the non-West to keep Huawei out. In recent years, the Five Eyes have stepped up their engagement with key partners in Asia, especially Japan.

Beyond intelligence, the Anglosphere has expanded its military collaboration, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. The creation of AUKUS — wherein the US and UK are assisting Australia in developing nuclear-powered submarines — heralded a new purpose for the Anglo-American alliance. Discussions have also taken place about integrating Canada and New Zealand under the so-called “Pillar 2” of the AUKUS framework. Despite occasional rifts — such as New Zealand’s past divergence from its partners — internal cohesion remained intact. This time, however, the primary source of disruption is not a smaller member but the US itself.

Trump’s aggressive trade war against Canada — a longtime trading partner and a pillar of the Anglosphere — has stunned observers around the world. His suggestion that Canada should become the “51st state” of the US and his claim that the border is arbitrary were seen as unprecedented affronts to the alliance. Even more provocative was his bid to “annex” Greenland, a territory tied to Denmark — one of the closest allies of the Anglo-American powers in Europe.

Beyond economic and territorial challenges to its long-standing partners in the Anglosphere, the Trump administration’s rhetoric toward Britain has been particularly hostile. At a Washington gathering of global conservative parties last summer, then-Senator J D Vance described Britain as the “the first truly Islamist country to get a nuclear weapon”. He went on to say, “maybe it’s Iran, maybe Pakistan kind of counts, and then we sort of decided maybe it’s actually the UK since Labour just took over”. That Islamists are gaining dominance in some European countries with growing Muslim minorities is becoming a common in right-wing political discourse in the US.

At the Munich Security Conference last month, Vance attacked Britain’s “woke politics,” alleging censorship of right-wing views, and accusing its leadership of bias toward minorities and liberal extremists. Elon Musk, a vocal Trump ally, has further fuelled tensions. He accused British Prime Minister Keir Starmer of failing to act against child exploitation during his tenure as Director of Public Prosecutions. Musk also called for the resignation of Labour officials over their handling of grooming gang scandals. In a provocative attack on the Labour government, Musk launched a poll on his platform, X, asking whether the US should “liberate” Britain from its “tyrannical government.” Many saw this as a direct attack on the Labour Party and its policies.

There is speculation in Washington that some of Trump’s aides are suggesting the expulsion of Canada from the Five Eyes given the serious disputes today over trade and border security. These reports were denied by the White House. Meanwhile, the US allies have concerns of their own on the developments in Washington. The appointments of Tulsi Gabbard as Director of National Intelligence and Kash Patel as FBI Director have raised alarm among traditional allies. Many in the Five Eyes establishment worry that Trump’s erratic approach to intelligence-sharing could compromise the security of the Anglosphere and the West. The allies are only echoing the former leaders of the US intelligence establishment that has been hostile to Trump.

The deep ideological divide between Trump’s MAGA movement and the traditional Anglosphere is stark. The American right increasingly views Britain as a failing state dominated by excessive economic regulation and woke politics. This resentment extends to what they see as a global liberal establishment — one that includes left liberal politicians in the Anglosphere, Europe and beyond.

As it hosts the global spooks-party, India’s own intelligence establishment has an opportunity to hear first-hand from the key participants, assess whether the current crisis in the Five Eyes is a temporary crack or a permanent fracture. It is also a moment for Delhi to reflect on the longer-term implications of the crisis and develop options to strengthen its own intelligence diplomacy in a world where the old markers are disappearing.

The writer is contributing editor in international affairs for The Indian Express