Budget 2024
: Finance Minister
Nirmala Sitharaman
will deliver her seventh consecutive Budget on Tuesday, outlining a plan for India’s development by 2047 and showcasing the government’s performance over the past decade. The market anticipates potential tax relief for the middle class, leaving more disposable income in their hands, given the current tax buoyancy.
Additionally, there are expectations for the government to adhere to the fiscal consolidation path, aiming to reduce the fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26, says a PTI report.
Here are the key numbers to watch out for the first full Budget of Modi 3.0:
1. Nominal GDP: India’s nominal GDP growth (real GDP plus inflation) in the current fiscal year is estimated to be 10.5% to Rs 327.7 trillion as per the Interim Budget. In view of expected normal monsoon, improvement in revenue collections and pick up in rural consumption, it is expected that there could be upward revision in growth estimate. Real GDP growth in current fiscal is projected at 7.2%, as per the RBI.
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2. Tax Revenue: The Interim Budget had pegged gross tax revenue at Rs 38.31 lakh crore for 2024-25, an 11.46% growth over the last fiscal. This includes Rs 21.99 lakh crore estimated to come from direct taxes (personal income tax + corporate tax), and Rs 16.22 lakh crore from indirect taxes (customs + excise duty + GST)
3. Fiscal Deficit: The budgeted fiscal deficit, which is the difference between the government expenditure and income, for the current fiscal is 5.1% as projected in the Interim Budget in February, against 5.8% in the last fiscal year. The full Budget is expected to provide better-than-earlier projections as there has been tax buoyancy. The government has projected a fiscal deficit at 4.5% of the GDP in FY264.
4. Capital Expenditure: The government’s planned capital expenditure for this fiscal year is budgeted at Rs 11.1 lakh crore, higher than Rs 9.5 lakh crore in the last fiscal year. The government has been pushing infrastructure creation and also incentivising states to step up capex.
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5. GST: Goods and Services Tax (GST) collection in 2024-25 is estimated to rise to Rs 10.68 lakh crore, an increase of 11.6 per cent. The tax revenue figures will have to be watched out for in the final Budget for the 2024-25 fiscal year.
6. Borrowing: The government’s gross borrowing Budget was Rs 14.13 lakh crore in the current financial year as per the Interim Budget. The government borrows from the market to fund its fiscal deficit. The borrowing number will be watched by the market, especially on the back of more-than-expected dividend from the RBI and financial institutions.
7. Dividend: The interim Budget had projected Rs 1.02 lakh crore from RBI and financial institutions. This will be revised upwards as the RBI has already made surplus transfer of Rs 2.11 lakh crore earlier in May. At the same time, Rs 43,000 crore expected to be garnered from CPSEs.
8. The Budget will also focus on expenditure for key schemes like NREGA and crucial sectors such as health and education.
Sitharaman, who has been presenting the Budget since 2019, had replaced the traditional leather briefcase with a ‘bahi-khata’ wrapped in red cloth in her first Budget. This year’s Budget will be paperless, as it has been for the past three years.
