Exit polls have thrown up an interesting phenomenon: the BJP can do better without many of its allies. The party had set an ambitious 400-seat goal for the National Democratic alliance it leads. To chase that goal, and to outcompete the INDIA bloc of opposition parties, it made a lot of effort to stitch alliances in Maharashtra, Bihar, Karnataka and Andhra. Exit polls show that most of the BJP’s allies, except in Andhra Pradesh, have only weighed the party down. And it appears to be doing well on its own in states where it ditched its old allies such as the Akalis in Punjab and the AIADMK in Tamil Nadu.
The important takeaway is that the BJP could be emerging as a bigger national party by penetrating in pockets where it had little influence of its own. Going forward, it’s possible that the BJP chooses to ally with many smaller parties instead of the big ones in states.
Bihar
During the election campaign, RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav had questioned the absence of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar from the BJP’s election rallies in the state. The former deputy chief minister made the remark while referring to the absence of Kumar, the JD(U) president, from rallies addressed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi at Gaya and Purnea.
Yadav’s RJD lost power after Kumar’s return to the NDA in January. Kumar was the man behind the making of the INDIA bloc of opposition parties. While the BJP bagging Kumar, was a big setback for the INDIA bloc, Kumar’s reputation of political flip-flops was seen as a liability for the BJP.
“Nitish’s frequent flip-flops have caused a severe credibility crisis as his voters look confused this time. In such a situation, there is a possibility of a split in the JD(U)’s core votes, particularly the extremely backward classes (EBC), and hence the BJP leadership is working hard to limit the possible damage,” a political expert had told TOI.
Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) led by Chirag Paswan, had contested against the JD(U) in the 2020 assembly polls, has allied with the BJP this time again after a split in the party.
The BJP faced an uphill task in Bihar of retaining the NDA’s 2019 tally. The NDA had won 39 out of 40 seats in 2019, with a vote share of 54%. The BJP had won all the 17 seats it had contested while Kumar’s JD(U) had won 16 out of 17.
The exit polls give 29 to 37 seats to the NDA while the number of JD(U)’s seats are predicted to go down. While many think without an alliance with the JD(U) NDA would have done worse, many others think the Nitish Kumar factor has proved negative for the BJP.
Tamil Nadu
In Tamil Nadu, where the BJP has been a junior partner of the AIADMK, is coming on its own, exit polls suggest. The BJP took the bold decision to go alone in these elections and severed its ties with the AIADMK. Exit polls predict the BJP can win one to four seats in the state while its vote share can go up to 26%.
In 2019, the BJP had contested five seats and won none while bagging a minuscule 3.66% vote share. The AIADMK had won just one out of the 21 seats it contested with a vote share of 18.48%.
The BJP’s Tamil Nadu strategy was based mainly on two factors: the revival of the party on the ground under its young leader K. Annamalai and Modi magic.
Though it didn’t tie up with its traditional ally AIADMK, the BJP added more than half a dozen small partners in the southern state. It stitched up alliances with Tamil Manila Congress led by GK Vasan, TTV Dinakaran’s Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), TR Pachamuthu’s Indhiya Jananayaga Katchi (IJK), AC Shanmugam’s New Justice Party (NJP) and John Pandian’s Tamizhaga Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (TMMK). Veteran Tamil actor R Sarath Kumar merged his Akila Indiya Samathuva Makkal Katchi (AISMK) with the BJP. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which enjoys influence among the Vanniyar caste and bagged a more than 5% vote share in the 2019 elections, also joined the BJP-led NDA.
The exit polls suggest the BJP’s strategy to go solo in Tamil Nadu has worked for it.
Maharashtra
Maharashtra was one state where political equations have undergone a radical shift. The BJP’s strategy too went through major reengineering. Encouraged by the BJP, Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde revolting against party chief Uddhav Thackeray led to the splitting of the party with SHinde finally retaining the party symbol and getting recognition as the original Shiv Sena. He was propped up as the chief minister by the BJP and his party became part of the NDA taking the place of Uddhav Thakckeray’s Sena..
The next year, Ajit Pawar revolted against his uncle and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar, again with the encouragement of the BJP. The party split, with Ajit’s faction emerging as more powerful and also retaining the poll symbol. Ajit too joined the NDA government. There has been a lot of unpredictability about Maharashtra results due to massive shifts in the political landscape.
In 2019, the NDA had won 41 out of the total 48 seats with a vote share of 50.88%.
The BJP contested 25 and won 23 with a vote share of 27.59% while its ally SHiv Sena , then a united party, won 18 out of 23 it contested with a vote share of 23.29%.
The NDA will be comfortably ahead of the Congress-led INDIA bloc in the state, according to exit poll results. As per the poll of polls, the NDA is poised to win around 32 seats while INDIA may secure 18 seats. That’s a loss of 9 seats from the 2019 tally. Could the BJP have done better without its new allies, especially Ajit’s NCP? When the BJP had allied with the Ajit faction there was some disapproval among the BJP supporters for allying with leaders who have been accused of corruption.
Punjab
As in Tamil Nadu, the BJP seems to be doing better in Punjab without its traditional ally. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been a bit player in Punjab politics, playing a second fiddle to its senior alliance partner the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) since 1996. But this time, it decided to come out of SAD’s shadow and fight the Lok Sabha elections on its own. The SAD had walked out of the alliance over the farm bills but both were considering coming together again which did not happen.
The vote share of the BJP was 5.4% from the 24 seats it contested in the 2017 assembly elections in alliance with the SAD. It rose to 6.6% when it fought from 73 seats in the 2022 assembly elections alone. However, in the 2019 parliamentary elections, the party had secured a 9.63% vote share. While the BJP victory is not certain from any seat, the party is expected to significantly add to its vote share which will help it strike roots in the state.
Exit polls predict the BJP can win one to four seats this time. It had won two in 2019. The party’s vote share can jump up to 26% which would mean massive gains for the BJP from breaking away with the Akalis. Many think the BJP has consolidated the Hindu vote share by splitting with the Akalis. If the BJP bags above 20% vote share in Punjab, it will be a serious contender in the next assembly elections in the state where it has been a inor player so far.
Karnataka
The BJP’s ally might cost it a lot in Karnataka. JD(S) MP Prajwal Revanna’s sex scandal might erode the NDA’s performance on a few seats. The BJP had allied with the JD(S) after it lost to the Congress in the state elections last year in a bid to strengthen the NDA before the Lok Sabha polls. The BJP’s alliance with JD(S) had problems right from the beginning. At the crossroads following a withering defeat in last year’s assembly elections, JD(S) had allied with ideologically distinct BJP, a partnership that hoped to bloom amid much political divergence.
The upcoming MLC elections have once again shown that the rift runs deep between the two parties. The confusion and rivalry over ticket distribution has come out in the open.
In 2019, the BJP had won 26 seats of the total 28 while one seat was one each by an independent allied with the BJP, the Congress and the JD(S). Exit polls suggest that the BJP-JD(S) alliance is set to dominate in Karnataka, with projections indicating they will secure between 21 and 23 Lok Sabha seats, which means the NDA will have 3 to 5 fewer seats than the previous time. Many htink the BJP could have done better than this if it had gone alone.
Andhra Pradesh
This is one state where the BJP’s bet on bigger regional allies is going to pay off in a big way, as per the exit polls. In 2019, The BJP had contested 24 of the total 25 seats and won none while getting a vote share of a mere 0.96%. The YSRCP of Y.S Jagan Mohan Reddy, who is the chief minister, swept the polls, winning 22 seats while its rival the TDP could win only 3. YSRCP’s vote share was 49.15 while the TDP’s was 39.59%.
Exit polls indicate a big win for the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena alliance over the ruling YSRCP, predicting from 19 to 25 seats for the alliance. In a state where the BJP has very little presence, it chose to play the junior partner to the TDP, its old ally which had parted ways with it earlier, by agreeing to contest just 6 seats while TDP and Jana Sena Party contested on 17 and 2 seats respectively.
(With inputs from TOI)
