BJP returns to Ram’s home: UP by-poll result shows the limits of Opposition’s caste census politics

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s mention of Milkipur in his post-election address at the BJP headquarters was a pointed acknowledgement of the party’s comeback in a region that had delivered one of its most symbolic defeats in 2024. The loss in Faizabad, home to Ayodhya and the newly inaugurated Ram temple, signalled a moment of reckoning for the party’s Hindutva strategy.

Milkipur, a reserved Assembly seat within the Faizabad Lok Sabha constituency, had seen a shift of backward caste and Dalit voters towards the INDIA bloc in 2024. The caste census narrative and anxieties over constitutional changes had fuelled this drift. However, the by-election results suggest that the BJP has managed to reverse this trend by reinforcing its traditional Hindutva plank while simultaneously deploying targeted caste mobilisation.

The BJP’s by-election strategy combined its core Hindutva appeal with an aggressive push to consolidate non-dominant OBCs (such as Kurmis, Rajbhars, and Lodhs) and non-Jatav Dalits (such as Pasis and Valmikis). The “Batenge to Katenge” slogan, which counters caste-based identity politics, seems to have resonated with voters. The BJP managed to convince voters that the Opposition’s caste census pitch is divisive rather than empowering.

Additionally, Yogi Adityanath’s law-and-order narrative — centred on bulldozer-driven justice and crackdowns on organised crime — continued to find traction among these communities. The perception that the BJP ensures stability and security has reinforced its appeal, especially in rural and semi-urban areas.

Beyond ideology and caste dynamics, the BJP’s welfare-oriented governance has been pivotal in restoring voters’ confidence. Initiatives like the free ration scheme, the expansion of PM Awas Yojana (housing for the poor), and benefits related to electricity have reinforced the BJP’s connection with economically disadvantaged groups, including substantial segments of the backward and Dalit communities.

The Ram temple, inaugurated in January 2024 in Ayodhya, is now flooded with devotees and tourists. The saffron outfit has successfully used it to further energise the BJP’s core voter base, making it a political rallying point that consolidates Hindu identity across caste divisions. The Milkipur result underscores how Hindutva remains a unifying force despite temporary electoral setbacks.

Notwithstanding the broader political implications, these by-election results have cemented Yogi Adityanath’s standing within the BJP. After the Lok Sabha results, murmurs of dissatisfaction within the party had emerged, with some questioning his electoral strategy. The recent outcomes have effectively silenced his detractors, reaffirming his grip over UP politics.

For the Opposition, particularly the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress, these results signal a setback. Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) formula, which had yielded dividends in 2024, appears to have faltered against the BJP’s aggressive counter-mobilisation. Congress, despite its recent resurgence, has struggled to convert its parliamentary gains into a formidable state-level presence.

The by-election results are more than just an immediate victory for the BJP; they are a precursor to the larger battle for the 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections. Adityanath’s political dominance, coupled with the BJP’s ability to recalibrate its Hindutva and caste strategies, suggests that the party remains well-positioned.

While the Opposition will regroup and try to reignite its caste census strategy, the BJP has sent a strong message: Hindutva, backed by welfare and social engineering, remains its most potent electoral formula. The road to 2027 has just begun, and for now, Adityanath and the BJP are firmly in the driver’s seat.

The writer is a political commentator and teaches Political Science at DDU Gorakhpur University, Uttar Pradesh