Synopsis
BJP’s repeated emphasis on SCs, STs and OBCs comes as it senses that poll arithmetic in Maharashtra has changed considerably since the 2019 parliamentary polls. This time it looks like the Dalits and Muslims seem to be backing Congress-Sena-NCP (SP) alliance in the state.
AgenciesMumbai: It’s not just the Sam Pitrodas and the Mani Shankar Aiyars, who have been the party-poopers in Congress‘ campaign trail. BJP is also smarting under the remarks made by its Karnataka leader Anantkumar Hegde, who in the run-up to the Lok Sabha polls said that BJP would need a two-thirds majority to change the Constitution. This has turned into a convenient weapon in the Maharashtra Opposition parties’ arsenal as they have successfully spun out a narrative that if BJP comes to power, it would remove reservations for SCs, STs and OBCs. BJP has got vibes from the ground that there is a consolidation of Scheduled Caste community votes against BJP in the state.
BJP has tried to counter this charge with the PM repeatedly alleging ‘Congress injustice’ on SCs, STs and OBCs and pointing to Karnataka’s reservation for Muslims under the OBC quota.
BJP’s repeated emphasis on SCs, STs and OBCs comes as it senses that poll arithmetic in Maharashtra has changed considerably since the 2019 parliamentary polls. This time it looks like the Dalits and Muslims seem to be backing Congress-Sena-NCP (SP) alliance in the state.
For instance, in Solapur, Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi had put up Rahul Gaikwad against Praniti Shinde of Congress and BJP’s Ram Satpute. This could have posed problems to Shinde as the constituency has a large number of Dalit voters. In the 2019 polls, Ambedkar had contested as a VBA candidate and had got nearly 1.7 lakh votes, leading to the defeat of Praniti’s father Sushil Kumar Shinde as Dalit votes got divided between Shinde and Ambedkar. This time, Gaikwad withdrew his candidature claiming he had no chance of winning and that he didn’t want Dalit votes to be divided as it could benefit BJP. Gaikwad later joined Congress.
In Jalgaon, VBA candidate Praful Lodha, after meeting Dalit leaders, withdrew from the contest within five days of his name being announced. Lodha echoed what Gaikwad said and claimed he had no chance of winning and he wanted to respect the community sentiment.
“Dalits would not have gone significantly against BJP alliance earlier. However, BJP’s slogan of ‘400 paar’ and Hegde’s statement that BJP would change the Constitution once it comes to power has led to a fear that reservations for Dalits would be removed. This has led to a consolidation against BJP,” said Vivek Ghotale, a political analyst. He said 48 Dalit organisations have come together to extend support to MVA candidates after Hegde’s comment. “We have seen in several constituencies like Latur and Nanded, Dalit organisations bringing out pamphlets asking the community to vote for MVA candidate,” said Ghotale.
While it is not clear whether there is an overwhelming trend among the Dalits in the state, there is enough consolidation to hurt BJP’s chances. Deputy CM Devendra Fadnavis recently admitted that BJP stopped using the ‘400 par’ campaign slogan due to Opposition’s campaign that BJP would change the Constitution after getting 400-plus seats.
This is not just about one or two constituencies. Dalits and Muslims have been exerting pressure on candidates to withdraw from the contest to prevent vote-split. In Ahmednagar, the All-India Majlis E Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) put up Parvez Ashrafi. However, Ashrafi himself withdrew from the contest after community leaders appealed to him that while he may not win, he would cause a division of minority votes.
This means that BJP’s Sujay Vikhe Patil is facing an uphill battle against NCP (SP)’s Nilesh Lanke. In Solapur again, local AIMIM leaders threatened to resign en masse in protest after they came to know that AIMIM leadership had plans to give ticket to Ramesh Kadam, a candidate who could help BJP. Even before the elections there was a perception among the Dalit and Muslim communities that VBA and AIMIM are the ‘B’ team of BJP. Keen to remove the misconception, both AIMIM and VBA have not put up candidates in several seats as they did in 2019.
Muslim votes in at least 14 constituencies like Aurangabad, Mumbai South, Mumbai South Central, Parbhani, Dharashiv, Raigad, Akola, Bhiwandi, Amravati, Jalna, Raver, Beed, Buldhana, Latur, Yavatmal-Washim and Solapur are enough to influence the contest.
Fadnavis recently claimed that calls were being given from mosques asking the community to vote against Modi and BJP. Maharashtra Navnirman Sena President Raj Thackeray also has echoed the same, claiming that fatwas have been issued to vote against BJP and Hindus should also consolidate their vote for BJP and its alliance in the state. In an interview on Tuesday, Fadnavis told ET that Congress and its allies have been trying to create a ‘fear factor among Dalits and Muslims’ to get them to vote for them.
