Any discussion on Agnipath must start with an acknowledgement that the quality of defence expenditure in India has worsened over the past couple decades. (File)
The future of the Agnipath scheme is a pressing concern for the new government at the Centre. The narrative that this scheme dampened the NDA’s prospects gained momentum during the election campaign. The spokesperson of the JD(U), a key NDA partner, has publicly stated that the scheme upset some sections and needs to be modified. Despite these political rumblings, there is a noticeable lack of specific alternatives to address the original problems that led to the crafting of the Agnipath scheme. This article proposes an “inverse induction model” as a solution to make Agnipath 2.0 meet its operational, political, and fiscal objectives.
The need for reform
Any discussion on Agnipath must start with an acknowledgement that the quality of defence expenditure in India has worsened over the past couple decades. The One Rank One Pension (OROP) scheme further tipped the scales in favour of incumbent beneficiaries at the cost of future soldiers. In FY20, the defence pension expenditure exceeded the outlay marked for defence equipment purchases. Meanwhile, worsening relations with a technologically superior power made India realise that spending with a focus on a human-heavy force is militarily ineffective; the armed forces need to make a decisive shift from more “humanpower” to more “firepower”. At around the same time, Covid-19 happened, which led to a pause in the normal cycle of armed forces recruitment. These were the circumstances in which the government started looking for reform ideas.
Of the options on the table, the government chose the most disruptive one. This choice, which would lead to a significant reduction in personnel costs in the shortest possible time, was a “Tour of Duty” scheme called Agnipath. Under it, only a quarter of the recruits would be retained for permanent service after a four-year term. The government, however, presented the scheme as a means of “attracting young talent from the society who are more in tune with contemporary technological trends and plough back skilled, disciplined and motivated manpower into the society.” There was no mention of the fiscal urgency. This move created an impression outside that the government was needlessly imposing another disruptive scheme. Therefore, before proceeding with changes in Agnipath, the defence ministry must clarify the economic reasons for reform to the people through a white paper.
Agnipath 2.0: Reverse Induction
Once that’s done, the ministry can modify the Agnipath scheme to better manage the interests of key stakeholders. The bone of contention right now is what happens to 75 per cent of the Agniveers who are let go from the armed forces after the four-year contract ends. Apprehension about the future prospects of such cohorts led to mass protests in 2022. A solution that retains this section of Agniveers in the broader national security system can address these concerns. Here’s how.
The alternative, called “Inverse Induction”, was proposed by us [Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon and I] in a Takshashila Discussion Document (September 2019). The name implies that the recruitment of Agniveers first happens through the Central and State Armed Police Forces (CAPF/SAPF) and not the Indian armed forces directly. These new CAPF recruits are then inducted into the Indian armed forces for a colour service of seven years. The Indian armed forces train the incoming personnel per their standards for one year, after which they serve for six years. After the Agniveer term ends, the recruit is sent back to the parent CAPF.
They undergo reorientation training for around three months and are then absorbed on duty along with the retention of their seniority in the parent CAPF/SAPF. Retirees receive pensions as applicable to the recruiting CAPF. On exiting the national security system at any point after their colour service in the armed forces, Agniveers are entitled to receive their SevaNidhi package, which accumulates on account of their term in the forces.
More savings, better capabilities
Defence pension savings come from two pathways. First, the personnel are retained within the National Security System for a longer period of time, as the retirement age for all CAPF personnel is 60. Second, the pension bill per Agniveer is lower as the CAPF/SAPF provide pensions as per the National Pension System (NPS). Unlike OROP, NPS is a “defined contribution” scheme, where the pension is paid out of a corpus the employee co-creates using their own salary package. Moreover, the Ministry of Defence does not have to bear the pension burden since CAPF/SAPF falls outside their funding mandate. Our thumb rule is that the pension savings achieved per recruit amount to a net present value of Rs 1 crore.
The proposed inverse induction model can effectively address the three main objections to the Agnipath scheme. First, retaining the soldiers in the national security system alleviates the concerns of those disheartened by the exit from armed forces after four years of gruelling service. Second, there are likely to be significant positive effects — the recruiting paramilitary organisations’ combat capabilities will improve due to the training of Agniveers by the armed forces. It will also build capacity in the severely understaffed state armed police forces. Third, extending the service term to seven years can also address the operational concerns of the armed forces as a shorter service term and high turnover are believed by some to reduce military effectiveness.
In short, Agnipath can be improved through inverse induction. The National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) first proposed a variant of this model in 2015. The proposal was accepted by the defence ministry but not the home ministry. Political intervention is required for the Home Ministry to change its stance. Tackling the fiscal problems of the national security system requires a whole-of-government approach.
The writer is deputy director at the Takshashila Institution
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