After recent terror episode, a wake up call in J&K

However, what the deep state and the sponsors of the proxy war wish is to re-establish their relevance in the narratives around J&K, to be counted as spoilers of the peace and stability that India seeks and for which it has been following a process that has managed to exclude Pakistan. From the deep state’s angle, a terrorist-related event of sufficient intensity was perhaps perceived as essential at this stage, such that the dividend of the peaceful election would not translate to further normalisation in J&K.

Not long ago, I had assessed that the violence in the Jammu region, although high in intensity, was essentially diversionary. It was focused there to exploit a void, recover some lost ground and re-establish relevance. However, in the entire ongoing strategic assertion that the Pakistani deep state wishes to make, it is Kashmir which remains the centre of gravity. A Kashmir lost to the Indian narratives of development, transparency and tolerance will ring the death knell of Pakistan’s claim, which, it feels, has already been weakened by the abrogation of Article 370.

It was assessed by many that the continued large-scale presence of security forces in and around the urban centres of Kashmir, including Srinagar, Anantnag and Baramulla, would probably ensure the discounting of big terrorist actions at these locations. It is not easy to execute a Pulwama-type action, especially with all the security forces being on high alert. The initiation could best be through a peripheral area in Kashmir where deployment of the forces is low and which is accessible without the perpetrators leaving too many footprints.

The Z-Morh tunnel is a flagship infrastructure project. It requires specialised labour and expertise. The number of personnel involved is very large. While security exists, this area has been traditionally peaceful. I recall the last major operations anywhere close to this area having been conducted in 2009. It is not far from the areas which see the traditional seasonal deployment for the Amarnath Yatra.

The location opens an opportunity for a terror group through the Gurez valley or Mashkoh, both challenging routes but with minimal chances of being discovered. Further investigations will confirm the mode of execution by the perpetrators but this places under threat several other infrastructure projects in the outlying areas. There is the Kishanganga project very close to the LoC at the entrance to the Gurez valley and the two projects in the Jhelum Valley, Uri 1 and Uri 2, besides some others, including railway projects in the vicinity of Banihal and Qazigund.

It is smart military thinking on the part of the adversaries to divert focus to peripheral areas and several other projects which will take away the attention from the traditional areas of ideological and physical resistance. Is there something more sinister being planned? It offers food for thought to the unified command and the intelligence agencies. Now that they are adept at neutralisation of terror networks, they should preferably concentrate on fighting the revival of overground workers, terror financing and drug mafias.

I had earlier alluded to this event being potentially part of the chain of ongoing unusual events targeting India, to put it on the defensive and dilute its emerging strategic confidence. The bomb hoax threats to aircrafts, strange blasts in unexpected places such as Rohini in Delhi and the seemingly deliberate efforts to turn on the diplomatic pressure over allegations of transnational sponsoring of assassinations, all appear to point towards something larger.

It is good that the Abdullahs have spoken against the Pakistani linkages to the sponsorship of violence in J&K without mincing their words. The pre-poll stance on talks with Pakistan has not been mentioned in their interventions. Politically, if the central and state governments are seen to be on the same page, half the perception battle is won.

It is, as yet, difficult to see what actions can be taken in this “grey zone”, but it’s not as if Omar Abdullah is inexperienced in terms of security. This early in his tenure, it may be prudent for the central government and its agencies, along with the redoubtable J&K police, to remain responsible for security. In the final count, it’s important to note that the proxy war in J&K is far from over. The restricted frequency of violence must in no way lead to complacency.

The writer is former corps commander of the Srinagar-based 15 Corps. Views are personal.