For the BJP, state parties have often been stepping stones and after the rise of Narendra Modi in 2014, the newly-aggressive BJP was in no mood to play second fiddle to its state partner.
With 48 seats and an all-round political chaos, Maharashtra is emerging as one of the most watched states during this Lok Sabha election. In the last two elections, the state witnessed a complete domination of the BJP and Shiv Sena. The two parties together polled 48 per cent votes in 2014 and crossed the halfway mark in 2019. This dominance could have transformed the framework of political competition in the state. But Lok Sabha victories also brought to the fore the state-level ambitions of both parties. After their early taste of power in the state in 1995, both the BJP and Shiv Sena were sulking that power eluded them in the Maharashtra assembly after 1999. But when the opportunity did come in 2014 (and then in 2019), both parties wanted to encash the opportunity at each other’s cost.
For the BJP, state parties have often been stepping stones and after the rise of Narendra Modi in 2014, the newly-aggressive BJP was in no mood to play second fiddle to its state partner. On the other hand, the dramatic improvement in its performance in both parliamentary elections convinced the Shiv Sena that it deserved to lead the state rather than let the BJP dominate.
Their 2019 break-up made headlines, but the two parties have never been comfortable with each other since the Lok Sabha victory of 2014. They parted ways in the 2014 assembly election, only to patch up post-election. Thus, the destabilisation of the framework of competitive politics in Maharashtra began with the sudden rise of the BJP as the main player in the state’s politics in 2014. This process continued after the assembly elections of 2019. “Smart politics” resulting in splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP helped Fadnavis and BJP make a comeback. Thus, developments since 2019 and more so following the fall of the Sena-NCP-Congress government were only a part of the more long-term and ongoing process of party fragmentation and reconfiguration.
The question is: How have these developments affected the BJP in its search to be the single dominant party in the state? It has not been able to get the chief ministership even after the intrigues of 2022-23. But its supporters may draw satisfaction from the fact that the BJP was, and continues to be, the real force behind the “Mahayuti” that currently rules Maharashtra. There is no doubt that one deputy CM is in fact the super CM. The other gain for the BJP has been that with splits in the two strong state-level players, the political space is now more easily available for it to conquer. Following the splits, both factions of the NCP and Shiv Sena are weaker, more entangled in the rivalry to outdo the other faction of the original party and unable to pose a threat to the BJP. In a sense, this fits well with the BJP’s objective of occupying all political spaces held by state-level players.
And yet, this so-called political cleverness may not help the BJP much, at least so far as the current Lok Sabha elections are concerned. Already, within the state government, the BJP has to be content with a limited share and is forced to keep many of its ministerial aspirants out of the council of ministers to share power. Now, with two partners to deal with, the BJP also runs the risk of disappointing many of its loyal and older aspirants wanting to ride piggyback Modi’s popularity to reach Delhi. An extremely complicated process of seat sharing has been going on within the Mahayuti.
It seems that BJP would end up getting to contest at the most 30 seats — five more from last time. Will that help the party increase its seat tally from last time’s 23 seats? Or, will this three-way alliance and its strains result in a less impressive performance? These questions are important for the BJP because unless it improves its performance in Maharashtra (and in Bihar, Odisha, West Bengal and Telangana), the party will not be able to retain its 300-plus strength, let alone add to that. That is where Maharashtra remains crucial for the BJP in its larger, nationwide game plan.
The BJP might be boasting of its smartness in splitting two parties in quick succession; it may also believe that the road to its success goes via the disruption of pre-existing patterns of competition in the state, but recent developments in Maharashtra have in reality thrown the state into a social and political mess. Politically, the current moment is an enigma: Traditional electoral calculations about the strength of each party either in different regions or among different communities are no longer relevant. In fact, this is a moment of complete fragmentation and fluidity that may see a prolonged life. While the BJP may be hoping to do well because it is contesting a larger number of seats against Congress and the NCP, there is no certainty about which social forces may support which party — in fact, the more likely scenario is the fragmentation of most social forces. This brings the politics of the state to the threshold of a complete reconfiguration.
There are, however, three critical dimensions of the so-called smart politics of breaking stable patterns which will continue to haunt state politics beyond this election, and indeed beyond electoral politics, spilling over into the political economy and social relations. One, the blatant politicisation and demoralisation of the state’s bureaucracy, including the police. Two, the complete delinking of decision making process from any policy perspective. And three, the unsettling of the social fabric. While communalisation of the social sphere is emerging threateningly, the cynical manner in which the BJP and its current partners have handled the Maratha issue, deceiving the Marathas and unnerving the OBCs, has the potential of tearing the social fabric apart.
The question that the mess in Maharashtra begs is: Is it worthwhile to pay this social and policy price even if that brought some political gains? Various parties and factions, vying to keep their foothold firm, are only dragged into the game of adding to this mess and contributing to degeneration of politics in the name of doing politics. In its wisdom, the BJP has indulged in this risky game in the state. Maharashtra’s recent experience shows that clever politics is not necessarily good for healthy competition or social harmony.
The writer, based in Pune, taught political science
