Jammu and Kashmir is set to witness a multi-cornered contest for 90 assembly seats in three phases from September 18, setting the stage for its first election since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 amid a spike in terror attacks in the Jammu region. The results will be declared on October 4.
“The three-phase elections to the 90-member Jammu and Kashmir assembly will be held on September 18, September 25 and October 1,” chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar told a press conference in the presence of election commissioners Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu in New Delhi on Friday.
While 24 seats will go to the polls in the first phase, elections will be held in 26 segments and 40 constituencies in the second and third phases, respectively. The last assembly elections were held in Jammu and Kashmir a decade ago in November-December 2014 in five phases.
The announcement by the Election Commission comes months after the Supreme Court upheld the Centre’s decision to scrap Jammu and Kashmir’s special status and directed that assembly elections be held by September 30.
Seats up after delimitation
In 2014, the Peoples Democratic Party had emerged as the single largest party with 28 seats followed by the BJP with 25 seats, while the National Conference won 15 seats and the Congress 12. The PDP and the BJP joined hands to form a coalition government that lasted three years before the BJP withdrew its support in June 2018, leading to Mehbooba Mufti quitting as chief minister and President’s rule being imposed in the state.
After the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019 and fresh delimitation, the landscape of electoral politics in Jammu and Kashmir changed. Ladakh that had five assembly constituencies was bifurcated into a separate Union Territory. The number of seats in Jammu and Kashmir has gone up to 90 seats with 43 constituencies in Jammu region and 47 in Kashmir. Earlier, Jammu and Kashmir had 87 assembly seats.
New parties, new equations
Since the abrogation of Article 370, two new regional parties have been set up. While Apni Party is led by former minister Altaf Bukhari, the Democratic Progressive Azad Party has been founded by former chief minister Ghulam Nabi Azad. Both parties not only failed to open their accounts in the recent Lok Sabha elections, rather their candidates had forfeited their security deposits. The National Conference and the BJP won two seats each. The NC won the Anantnag and Srinagar Lok Sabha seats, while the BJP managed to retain the Jammu and Udhampur constituencies, while the Baramulla Lok Sabha seat was won by Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid, who contested as an Independent despite being lodged in Tihar Jail.
Though the PDP did not win any seat in the Lok Sabha, it got a good vote share in Srinagar and Anantnag constituencies. The NC and the Congress contested jointly as members of the INDIA group. The PDP that was also part of the alliance decided to contest all three Kashmir seats after the NC denied a ticket to its president Mehbooba Mufti.
Gupkar alliance not working
In a break from the past, NC president and former chief minister Farooq Abdullah’s recent statements indicate his party wants to go it alone in the assembly elections.
Though the NC, PDP, People’s Conference and CPI(M) formed the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration and won 110 seats in the District Development Council (DDC) elections held after the abrogation of Article 370, the PAGD started disintegrating as the PC left the group and later the NC and the PDP contested against each other in the Lok Sabha elections.
Last month, CPI(M) general secretary Yusuf Tarigami tried to hold a meeting of opposition parties but that was postponed, suggesting that the parties are not interested in a pre poll alliance for the assembly elections. Congress leaders are, however, hopeful of reviving the INDIA bloc. “We want the alliance partners to fight jointly to defeat the BJP. Our leaders are in touch with different parties,” said former Jammu and Kashmir Congress president and Congress working committee member Ghulam Ahmad Mir.
BJP faces terror heat in Jammu
BJP leaders, who are eyeing the chief minister’s chair after a good showing in the recent Lok Sabha elections in the Jammu region, face the heat of public anger over the spike in terror attacks in the region. Compared to previous elections, the party lost ground in certain pockets of Jammu. Though the NC and the BJP look dominant political forces, the PDP could emerge a dark horse in certain constituencies of Kashmir, particularly with leaders who quit returning to the party fold.
Can Engineer Rashid do it again?
Jailed Baramulla MP Engineer Rashid had taken the lead in 14 assembly segments of the Lok Sabha constituency but this time, it is not going to be easy for his Awami Ithead Party (AIP) to repeat the feat as the candidates don’t hold the same appeal among the masses that he did.
The recent Lok Sabha polls had witnessed a record 58% turnout and the poll percentage is likely to go up this time as the people of Jammu and Kashmir are eagerly awaiting assembly elections. A decade is a long time, after all.
