Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri’s visit to Dhaka a week before the Vijay Diwas observance was crucial in getting the bilateral dialogue going. In the face of growing anti-India sentiments in that country as well as attacks on minorities witnessed in Bangladesh ever since the ouster of Sheikh Hasina in early August this year, to the growing protests in various parts of India, it was prudent for both sides to meet to understand each other’s concerns and constraints.
Few bilateral relationships are as intricate and layered as that between India and Bangladesh. From the crucible of Bangladesh’s liberation war in 1971 to the complex diplomacy of current times, this relationship has weathered numerous storms. The foundation of this relationship was laid in blood and sacrifice. During Bangladesh’s liberation war, India provided crucial military and humanitarian support, hosting millions of refugees and eventually intervening militarily to support the Bengali freedom fighters. The victory on Vijay Diwas (December 16, 1971) created not just a new nation but also forged what seemed to be an unbreakable bond between the two countries.
The immediate post-liberation period saw strong cooperation under Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman’s leadership. However, this honeymoon period was short-lived, as Bangladesh, seeking to establish its distinct identity, began diversifying its international relationships. The assassination of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in 1975 marked a turning point, leading to periods of military rule that often took a more skeptical view of relations with India.
The relationship has since evolved through several phases, with significant progress made during Sheikh Hasina’s tenure as Prime Minister. Under her leadership, Bangladesh addressed many of India’s security concerns, particularly by cracking down on insurgent groups that had used Bangladesh as a safe haven. The resolution of the long-standing land boundary dispute through the historic Land Boundary Agreement in 2015 marked a high point in bilateral relations.
India’s investment in Bangladesh’s infrastructure development has been substantial and multifaceted. The development partnership has included lines of credit worth approximately $8 billion, making Bangladesh the largest recipient of India’s development assistance. These investments have funded crucial projects including the revival of railway links and the development of new connections, enhancing connectivity between the two nations, power transmission lines and power plants helping address Bangladesh’s energy needs, road infrastructure projects, including bridges and highways that facilitate trade and movement and port development and modernisation initiatives that boost maritime commerce.
However, beneath these impressive developments lie persistent challenges. Water sharing remains a contentious issue, particularly regarding the Teesta River. Despite a draft agreement in 2011, domestic politics in India, especially in West Bengal, has prevented its finalisation. This has been a source of frustration in Bangladesh and has sometimes overshadowed other positive developments in the relationship.
Trade imbalance is another significant concern. While bilateral trade has grown substantially, it remains heavily skewed in India’s favour. Bangladesh’s trade deficit with India has been a persistent issue, leading to calls for more balanced economic engagement. Despite preferential market access provided by India, non-tariff barriers and infrastructure constraints continue to limit Bangladesh’s exports.
The recent political developments in Bangladesh, with the installation of the interim government under Mohammad Yunus and the emerging issues, have introduced new complexities. Anti-India sentiments, while not new, have gained renewed visibility. These sentiments stem from various factors that include perception of India’s strong support for the deposed prime minister and her Awami League government, concerns about economic dependence on India, unresolved issues like water sharing and alleged border killings, regional geopolitical dynamics, particularly China’s growing influence in the region.
The rise of social media has amplified these sentiments, with younger Bangladeshis particularly vocal about perceived Indian dominance in regional affairs. This presents a challenge for both countries’ diplomatic establishments, who must navigate between maintaining strong institutional ties while being sensitive to public sentiment.
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Looking ahead, the relationship faces both opportunities and challenges. The potential for economic cooperation remains vast, particularly in building on the improved connectivity infrastructure. Focusing on emerging sectors like digital commerce and renewable energy also helps expand the horizon. Connectivity to northeast India via Bangladesh from other parts of India offers a great opportunity for improving economic activities that directly benefits Bangladesh economically. The Bangladesh-Bhutan-India-Nepal (BBIN) initiative offers a framework for regional integration that could benefit all participants.
However, managing public perceptions and addressing long-standing issues will be crucial. The foundation of shared history and cultural ties remains strong, but modern diplomatic relations require constant nurturing. As Bangladesh continues its impressive economic growth and seeks a more prominent regional role, the relationship with India must evolve from one of dependency to a true partnership. This evolution will require wisdom, patience, and strategic thinking from leaders on both sides. The Indian Foreign Secretary has reiterated that India will work with the interim government as well as the new government that takes office after elections are held soon so that people-to-people ties and the economy improve further.
The writer, a defence and cyber security analyst, is former country head of General Dynamics
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