One year after the war in Gaza began, the state of play in West Asia is marked by acute strains and glaring paradoxes.
One, Israel’s offensive following Hamas’ attacks on October 7, 2023, has grown in scope and audacity. Along with the continued destruction of Gaza and the gradual erasure of Palestinian habitats in the West Bank, Israel has bombed and invaded Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah personnel, network, and military hardware. It has decapitated Hezbollah’s top-rung leadership and dealt serious blows to Hamas. Israel has cared little for civilian lives in its use of firepower, protestations of the wider world notwithstanding. The attacks on civilians and UN peacekeepers in Lebanon have been added to those on journalists and humanitarian aid workers in Gaza.
Israel’s spectacular use of firepower has been made possible by western, particularly American, support in terms of funds, arms, logistics, intelligence, political and diplomatic cover, and narrative control through the global media. The extraordinary tolerance of Israeli excesses is partly due to policy capture by pro-Israel special interests, particularly in the United States (US). But it also shows that several western governments have yet again succumbed to the temptation of forcing political change in West Asia using military power.
Furthermore, Israel’s moral capital has run into a deficit. Its aim in Gaza is ethnic cleansing while intensifying settler colonialism in the West Bank, with the two combining to establish the practice of apartheid across Palestinian lands. More than 50 years after global decolonisation, a country involved in these actions is an outdated political idea and an affront to ordinary decency and international morality. These practices should haveresulted in Israel’s political and diplomatic isolation, which is the standard practice in international politics. But it is puzzling that even the leaders of the so-called “Global South” have shied away from imposing political and diplomatic costs on Israel.
In addition, the past year has made Israel overdependent on the West for its security, and the perception of its near-invincibility has eroded. An Israel unsafe for its Jewish citizens is not an attractive idea. This fact is likely to endanger social peace within the country, which could strengthen anti-Arab extremism and cause a flight of those who will have better prospects elsewhere.
Finally, although Israel’s use of its intelligence, technological sophistication, and airpower is impressive, it is not clear if it has an endgame that results in stability if not peace. Hamas and Hezbollah cannot be defeated either as actors or as ideas. The Palestinians will not abandon their lands. And regime change in Iran is a fantasy. Israel’s current strategy is to use punishment to instil a mortal fear of retaliation in its enemies. The problem with this strategy is that its yields diminish too soon. Solidarity is an antidote to fear, especially as one generation gives way to another. Those resisting Israel’s occupation will mount a comeback within years.
Insofar as the Palestinians are concerned, the past year has seen the world take notice of their quest for a life of dignity and a sovereign State in their own homeland. The US was quick to revive the two-State idea during the initial weeks of the Gaza war, although very little of it has been heard in recent months. The coordinated recognition by Spain, Ireland, and Norway of a Palestinian State in May this year was significant for the diplomatic point it made to Israel’s absolute supporters in the West. Even an unreliable Saudi Arabia has made the realisation of Palestinian Statehood a precondition for normalising ties with Israel. And there is more sympathy today for Palestine on the western street than ever before.
At the same time, Palestinians have become acutely vulnerable to physical annihilation and irreversible displacement. As the renewed offensive in northern Gaza in recent days indicates, Israel wants them to leave Gaza or dwindle in numbers through hunger, exhaustion, and disease. Land grabs, destruction, and violence have also intensified in the West Bank. And with Israel exercising absolute control over who has access to the Palestinian people, global solidarity is unable to translate into real assistance at scale. This dark duality is a policy challenge.
At the regional level, the past year has also upended conventional narratives about sectarian divides and religious solidarity in West Asia. A Shia Iran and its quasi-State Shia allies have exchanged fire with Israel in defence of Sunni Arab Palestinians, while many Sunni Arab States have either collaborated with Israel and the West or stayed indifferent.
Furthermore, the military dynamics have seen an unstable interplay of escalation and restraint, both — paradoxically — supported by the US. Israel has sought to draw Iran into a direct confrontation with the US, but Tehran has not taken the bait. Tehran’s direct attacks on Israel have been largely symbolic, though the second round intended and did do limited military damage. The US has supported Israel to the hilt but drawn a line before a direct US-Iran confrontation. Astonishing as it may sound given what the region is witnessing, this is a mature policy from both the US and Iran. However, if the two do clash and a regional war does break out, Tehran would not have been the one to want or start it.
Atul Mishra teaches international relations at Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence, Delhi-NCR.The views expressed are personal
