ByMN Sabharwal Manish Sabharwal
Oct 04, 2024 09:03 PM IST
Prosperity through peace is the future of Kashmir, especially since the escalating war on terrorism in West Asia has Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the US aligned while Pakistan is confused.
In 1974, Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat told the United Nations, “I come to you bearing an olive branch of peace in one hand and the freedom fighter’s gun in the other. Do not let the olive branch fall from my hand”. It is always hard to distinguish between terrorist threats and hopes, but politicians must be different. Kashmiri politicians confusing the similarity of the 2024 and 1996 elections for sameness are reverting to habits of soft separatism such as suspending election campaigning to commemorate Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah — designated a terrorist outfit by the US and several other countries — after he was killed in an Israeli attack. They are mistaken. Kashmir’s context has changed forever, and so must they.
The similarities with the 1996 elections are interesting. Both happened after about 10 years, with a narrative that J&K can’t — and shouldn’t — be run from Delhi. Both followed Parliament elections with unexpected results. Both had different issues resonating in the Jammu region and Kashmir region. Both faced multiple disruption attempts by Pakistan’s terror factory. Both have candidates promising troublesome assembly resolutions (an autonomy demand was passed last time) and lowering the temperature for terrorists (terrorist surrender ceremonies and the Police Special Operations Group were disowned last time).
But 2024 is different. Article 370 is gone forever. Pakistan’s terror factory confronts new rules with cross-border strikes. Pakistan’s once-powerful garrison State — no prime minister (PM) has ever completed his/her term — is weaker than ever. In 1996, radical and violent Islam (as distinct from moderate Islam) was regarded as a thorn in the flesh; the global community now recognises it as a dagger in the heart. The exodus and return of Kashmiri Pandits wasn’t an issue in 1996; it matters greatly to the rest of India in 2024. Pakistan’s per capita GDP was higher then; India’s GDP is now 10 times higher, and our stock market is 120 times more valuable. Unlike the terrorists inspired by the Cold War ending in 1989, most Kashmiris now see the horrible pain inflicted by terror groups, in the saying, “Lookan hoondh khoon lookini muth” (smearing the blood of the people on their faces).
The 2024 elections are the first under the Indian Constitution — the last 11 were held under the J&K State Representation of People Act, with six-year government tenures and exclusion of residents from voting based on their birthplace, birth date, or ancestry. The National Conference (NC) won all 75 seats in the first state election of 1951 because 43 NC candidates were elected unopposed a week before. In 1957 and 1962, the NC acquired a majority before polling began using the same technology. In 1972, women candidates contested for the first time. The 1983 elections were ferociously fought — Indira Gandhi hadn’t forgotten Sheikh Abdullah’s betrayal of 1977 — but Farooq Abdullah led the NC to victory on soft separatism. This victory was soon sabotaged by Farooq’s sister’s husband, GM Shah, in partnership with Indira Gandhi. Mufti Sayeed’s leaving Congress in 1987 changed state politics, but his low point was thanking Pakistan as chief minister in 2014 for allowing peaceful elections.
The rhetoric in the 2024 polls that Article 370 will be restored is wilful fraud; this is a constitutional impossibility for any modern parliamentarian to support. This demand by Kashmir’s and Delhi’s dynasts gave Pakistan’s PM a chance last week to compare Kashmir to Palestine at the United Nations and their defence minister to cheer for the latter’s victory. Communal statements by the same politicians gave Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a chance to tweet, “We cannot consider ourselves to be Muslims if we are oblivious to the suffering that a Muslim is enduring in .. #India.” Rhetoric has dangerously reverted to Kashmiri domination over Jammu in state politics. Finally, the national Opposition leader saying “major contracts are going to outsiders” creates a divide our Constitution does not recognise and Kashmiris call moolon droth ta patran sag (watering the leaves while cutting the roots).
The lack of new faces in this election is sad; dynastic politicians frustrate ambitious young people because they cement the elitism proposed by Pakistan’s national poet Muhammad Iqbal: Jamhooriyat ek tarz-e-hukumat hai jis me logon ko gina jaata he, tola nahin (democracy should count people instead of weighing them). Kashmir is an economic infant; it has not benefited from India’s prosperity because of Pakistan’s terror factory, Article 370, fraught federalism, a mistaken UN reference, and politicians using soft separatism. Whoever wins this election must understand that India’s citizens now recognise that nostalgia about J&K’s past is amnesia about sectarianism, factionalism, Islamism, regionalism and nepotism. Prosperity through peace is the future of Kashmir, especially since the escalating war on terrorism in West Asia has Saudi Arabia, UAE, and the US aligned while Pakistan is confused. Political candidates in J&K must, as they say in Kashmiri, poetim mashravv, bronh kun nazzar thaav (forget the past and look to the future).
MN Sabharwal is a former director general of J&K Police, and Manish Sabharwal is a J&K-born entrepreneur. The views expressed are personal
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