Feb 02, 2025 09:17 PM IST
The BJP’s sweep in the Lok Sabha elections in Delhi and the AAP’s near-sweep of the assembly polls indicate that both parties had broad class-coalitions backing them
In the run up to the Delhi assembly polls all contenders have claimed to be champions of the poor, announcing a slew of welfare promises. While the Congress would be hoping to at least double its vote share and open the seat tally, the contest is essentially between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The stark irony in the campaign has been that the middle class, a substantial chunk of Delhi’s voter base, appears to have been largely sidelined in the pre-poll talk. Delhi, unlike other states and Union territories, has a large middle-class population, whose voting patterns have a significant impact on the electoral outcome. However, the Union Budget on Saturday has offered a bonanza for the middle class by delivering large cuts in personal income tax rates. It remains to be seen if it will make it to the poll talk — Delhi votes on Wednesday and the election campaign ends today.
That apart, will the BJP’s Delhi-specific campaign promises be enough to end its nearly three-decade status of being the principal Opposition? Or will the AAP retain office for a third consecutive term? The BJP’s campaign has largely relied on attacking the AAP leadership over corruption charges, the “luxurious” lifestyle (based on allegations regarding the renovation of the CM bungalow during Arvind Kejriwal’s tenure), and the non-fulfilment of several promises. The party also seems to believe that its welfare schemes led it to victory in the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly polls last year. It has pinned its hopes of challenging the AAP to a resurgent Congress in the state and a vote-share gain among women through its welfare promises. The assumption is that a division of the Muslim vote and weaning away of poor voters from the AAP would be enough.
The BJP could make substantial gains in votes and seats if these two things were to happen, but an outright victory may still elude the party if it fails to consolidate the middle class voters. Delhi has been a classic case of split-voting in the past decade, where a significant chunk of voters choose different parties for the Lok Sabha (LS) and the assembly. The BJP’s vote share in the last three LS elections in the national capital has averaged around 55%, while it won 39% votes in the 2020 assembly polls. So, its ability to win this election depends on whether it gets at least half of the additional 15-18% votes that it receives in the Lok Sabha (LS) polls.
Who are these voters? Are they from the middle class or are they the city’s poor? These two groups have very different expectations from the government. The poor will likely be concerned about welfare benefits while the middle class may care more about better roads, management of traffic, and efforts to reduce air pollution. The BJP must realise that the movement of middle-class voters has eluded the party in its quest for victory in the Delhi assembly polls over the past decade. There are two data points to indicate this trend: turnout patterns and vote choice.
In 2013 and 2015, there was a surge in middle-class participation, and they favoured the AAP after the India Against Corruption stir. In 2013, the voter turnout increased by nine percentage points (from 57.6% in 2008 to 66.1%), rising further to 67.4% in 2015, before declining to 62.8% in the 2020 elections. The 2020 turnout drop was much more in affluent and middle-class localities such as Malviya Nagar and Rajendra Nagar than in the poorer localities of Seemapuri and Okhla. The BJP’s sweep in the LS elections in Delhi and the AAP’s near-sweep of the assembly polls indicate that both parties had broad class-coalitions backing them. In defeat, their class-coalitions unravelled. The AAP in Delhi relies on support from the poor, and the BJP draws on its middle-class base.
Who votes for the BJP in the general election but not in assembly polls? This would have been better answered if panel survey data were available, i.e., the same voters were interviewed across election cycles. In its absence, we must rely on cross-sectional surveys (different voters interviewed across election cycles). This needs to be carefully done as the AAP came third in vote share during the 2019 LS elections, and the Congress vote share crashed to below 5% in the 2020 assembly elections.
The post-poll surveys conducted by the Lokniti-CSDS indicate that the BJP lost more votes among the poor between 2014 and 2015. However, this trend flipped between 2019 and 2020. The losses were higher for the party among the upper segments rather than in the lower economic segments. The AAP’s vote share among the poor in the 2020 assembly was almost double of the BJP, but the middle-class vote share gap was almost negligible. Now compare this with the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The survey suggests that the BJP had won almost half of the lower economic strata and two-thirds of the middle-class votes. And this pattern continued even in 2024.
The data points indicate that if the BJP hopes to avoid another assembly poll loss, it must reach out to its core constituency and ensure a high turnout among the middle class for the party. The question now is whether the announcements made in the budget can convince a significant chunk of voters who vote for them in Lok Sabha but not in the assembly elections to break the pattern.
Rahul Verma is fellow, Centre for Policy Research (CPR). The views expressed are personal
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