Construction is on at a frenetic pace to complete the Noida International Airport (NIA), a 100% subsidiary of Zurich Airport International. The first flight is scheduled to take off from the runway in April 2025. In the first phase, the ₹5,730-crore new airport with a single runway and the terminal building is expected to cater to 12 million passengers annually. Validation flights began at the facility earlier this month.
Trying to match the pace of NIA but still lagging is the most urgently needed airport in the country — the Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMIA) — something most Mumbai residents have long given up hope of ever seeing completed. Getting NMIA off the ground will be a big achievement and a feather in many caps including CIDCO (the agency that has been struggling with it for decades) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself, who has taken a personal interest in the project. As things stand, the project is 83% complete and the target is to get the domestic terminal operational by April, and international by July, but most expect a delay of a few months to get all requisite clearances.
Viability remains a question mark for NIA while Navi Mumbai is likely to hit the ground running as Mumbai’s current facilities are notoriously inadequate. Several smaller airports around the country are in need or likely to see upgrades, but it is these two new greenfield airports that will attract national attention.
With the total passenger numbers projected at between 160-174 million for the coming year (ICRA estimates), a growth of 7-10% over 2024, the lens of the industry will also be trained on the progress of Air India, which merged with Vistara in 2024. Many loyal passengers of Vistara have reluctantly moved to Air India and as is perhaps to be expected, notes of discontent and unhappiness with the erstwhile national carrier’s service standards have begun to come in.
It is too early to pass a verdict since Air India is yet to get its own act together and deliver in any discernible manner, although it appears to have turned the corner from a business point of view under Tata group’s watch and guidance. As per news reports, the airline’s losses came down from over ₹11,000 crore in FY 2023 to close to ₹4,500 crore in FY 2024, a reduction of 60%, which is no mean achievement. Passengers and industry observers however remain severely disappointed at the pace of change set by the airline and the management team at the helm has been accused of “more talk, less action” by the industry and the travelling public. Its progress will be keenly watched through 2025.
Similar scrutiny is on the cards for the market leader IndiGo, which is in the process of reinventing itself. In 2024, IndiGo announced its decision to introduce a second aircraft — a wide body — in its fleet, a momentous decision for any airline that has stuck so firmly to its core till now. With the order for 30 A350-900 (with options for another 70), the fundamental tenets on which this business stood for 18 years will be altered forever.
More recently, along with bumper profits, the carrier has also started offering business class on busy domestic routes, a logical corollary of the bigger decision of entering the wide body and thereby, long-haul space. In a nutshell, this means that after 18 years as a low-fare carrier, IndiGo will metamorphose into a full-service one over time. It is fair to say this is a seminal moment for any airline in its journey and this transformation will be one of the most closely watched by airline industry professionals not just in India but globally too. Industry observers, however, greeted the news with a muted response as the decision amounts to rocking a pretty steady boat in choppy waters.
The industry will also be tracking the progress of the smaller players — which have now acquired a new significance to prevent the ill effects a duopoly (Air India and IndiGo) brings forth. What is now clear is Jet Airways and Go First are unlikely to see any kind of revival. Akasa, which has been growing quietly at a steady clip, has, reportedly, large losses on its books. This is likely to be a worry for a management that has no large corporate backing and lost its primary backer with the passing of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala in 2022.
The revival of SpiceJet, India’s oldest low-fare airline, was a big surprise for the sector in 2024. Many had grounded the airline since Boeing’s troubles began and the pandemic took a severe toll on the airline’s finances and functioning. After struggling for almost four years, the airline managed to raise funds through a qualified institutional placement in September 2024. The continued survival of the carrier against all odds has been attributed to its chairman Ajay Singh’s never say die attitude and his ability to influence developments affecting the business in his favour.
Let me end with an interesting aside. In 2019, India’s largest private airline Jet Airways ceased flying and shut shop. 2020 was the pandemic year when all airlines globally halted operations for a short time as the world came to a standstill. In 2021, India’s national carrier was sold to one of India’s largest business conglomerates, the Tata Group. All three years were biggies for the aviation industry — more gloom than joy but dramatic, nonetheless. In comparison, 2022, 2023 and 2024 were relatively tame years for the sector even though one airline went down in 2023.
So, will the coming year break this jinx and offer more to chew on for India’s airline sector? Watch this space through 2025 for the answer.
Anjuli Bhargava writes on governance,infrastructure and the social sector.The views expressed are personal
