The result of the Jharkhand assembly election has come as a surprise to pollsters and political analysts who had considered it to be a close contest and who had predicted a change in power in the state. However, for those keeping a close eye on the developments in the state over the last few months, the choice of candidates and the political campaigns of the two political alliances — the NDA and the INDIA bloc — the result is along predicted lines.
Defying anti-incumbency, the INDIA bloc has succeeded in securing a formidable majority. This is much better than its performance in the previous assembly election. The alliance has also succeeded in expanding its geographical and social base. While the JMM traditionally had its support base in the Santhal Pargana and Kolhan areas (northeastern and southeastern parts of Jharkhand) and among the Manjhi (Santal, numerically the largest tribal group of the state), Mahato (the major OBC of the state) and Muslim communities, this year it has won many seats in other parts of the state and succeeded in getting the support of other tribal and OBC communities. The RJD has also succeeded in expanding its influence while the Congress is maintaining its base.
The Maiya Samman Yojana implemented by the government just before the announcement of the election succeeded in mobilising a large number of voters, especially women, in favour of the incumbent. This scheme was widely communicated and the beneficiaries were proactively registered through a simple registration process. The target of the government has been to register at least 50 lakh women under this scheme — Rs 1,000 have been transferred to their accounts since August. The government has promised to raise this amount to Rs 2,500 if it comes to power.
Against Maiya Samman Yojna, the BJP had announced the Go-Go Didi Yojana for the women of the state, under which it promised to give Rs 2,100 to them. However, it could not gain the confidence of the electors.
Efficient seat adjustment with allies and a judicious choice of candidates with strong local influence proved to be another factor for INDIA bloc’s success. On the other hand, both the BJP and its allies performed badly.
A massive campaign by local leaders proved to be a successful strategy for the INDIA bloc. Instead of national leaders and star campaigners, the bloc depended more on local leaders who could establish proper communication with the electorate and could address problems more effectively. Kalpana Soren, wife of Chief Minister Hemant Soren, has emerged as a very effective campaigner in this election. She travelled widely, campaigned not only for JMM candidates, but also for those of its allies, spoke mostly in the local language and forged a connection with the people.
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The BJP, on the other hand, depended more on national leaders from outside the state for its campaign. Himanta Biswa Sarma and Shivraj Singh Chouhan, who had taken up the responsibility of the BJP’s campaign in the state, failed to connect with the people. They were met with suspicion by the locals, who thought that if their party came to power, it would increase the influence of outsiders in the state who would exploit and alienate them from their resources.
BJP’s campaign issues could also not influence the voters. The attempt to create fear among the populace by telling them that if they did not get united, they would be pushed aside by infiltrators (“batenge toh katenge”), or by raising the issue of illegal Bangladeshi immigrants (“ghuspaithiye”) did not work in the state. It could not polarise the Hindu voters or mobilise the tribal ones. On the other hand, local issues raised by JMM and its allies had a larger appeal.
The emergence of Jairam Mahato and his party is an important development in this election. He could mobilise a large number of local (moolwasi or domicile) people, especially those of the Mahato community. His party might have succeeded in cutting into the vote bank of the AJSU, which did not fare well this time.
The writer is a Ranchi-based economist
