Exit polls get Maharashtra results right, wrong about Jharkhand elections
PTI
Synopsis
Exit polls accurately predicted the NDA’s victory in Maharashtra but failed to gauge the scale of their win. Conversely, most polls incorrectly predicted an NDA victory in Jharkhand, where the Congress-JMM alliance is projected to win. While some polls aligned with the BJP’s success in the Uttar Pradesh bypolls, the Election Commission has consistently criticized exit polls for their inaccuracy.
AgenciesThe majority of exit polls were right in predicting NDA’s victory in Maharashtra even though none of them could predict the scale of the Mahayuti’s win, but most of these surveys got the Jharkhand assembly elections wrong. Axis MyIndia, which had predicted 178-200 seats for the Mahayuti, 82-102 seats for the opposition MVA and 6-12 seats for others, came closest to the final results in Maharashtra. The ruling alliance was likely to end up winning in over 230 constituencies in the 288-seat assembly.
In Jharkhand, while all other exit polls had predicted a victory for the NDA, Axis MyIndia predicted that the Congress-JMM alliance would manage a tally of 49-59 seats, while the BJP-led NDA and three seats for others.
This, however, comes after two of its predictions in the Lok Sabha and Haryana assembly elections were off the mark. The agency, however, got the US election right.
In the 288-member Maharashtra Assembly, 145 is the majority mark, while it is 41 in the 81-member Jharkhand Assembly.
The exit poll conducted by People’s Pulse gave NDA’s Mahayuti a whopping 175-195 seats while giving only 85-112 seats to MVA and 7-12 to others in Maharashtra.
Some exit polls had also predicted a victory for the BJP in 5-7 seats out of bypolls held in nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh.
After the reverses in the Lok Sabha election, the ruling BJP-led alliance secured its hold over the crucial state of Uttar Pradesh with its candidates winning seven out of nine seats. The BJP retained four seats — Ghaziabad, Khair, Majhawan and Phulpur — and wrested Katehari and Kundarki from the SP while its ally RLD retained one. The Samajwadi Party, which had four of these seats, retained Sishamau and Karhal.
The Election Commission has been criticising the exit polls on the manner in which they are conducted and in several past elections, they have been proved to be way off the mark.
