Why Mumbai is a prestige fight

Mumbai, the capital of Maharashtra, has been demographically a microcosm of India more than of the state. This is reflected in its electoral priorities even though it is here the founder of the Shiv Sena, Balasaheb Thackeray, planted the idea of a nativist party of Maharashtrians in 1966. Politics in Mumbai, expectedly, has been shaped by local factors, echoing the regional sentiment represented by its most organised linguistic community and its political voice, but also increasingly by national factors, perhaps on account of the metropolis’ demographic diversity, itself the result of migration into it, usually for economic reasons.

The 36 assembly constituencies in Mumbai, roughly the seats that fall within the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) limits, have historically favoured the party in pole position nationally and holding office at the Centre. So, until the 1980s, the Congress mostly dominated electoral politics in Mumbai (then Bombay), and, thereafter, the Shiv Sena and the BJP, separately and together, became the preferred choice of Mumbai voters. The 2004-2014 period saw the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party regain electoral significance in the city for a brief while. And over the past decade, the BJP has become the dominant party in India’s commercial capital.

If past patterns do not necessarily offer any clues to the outcome this time, blame it on political realignments unsettling the ground. This uncertainty has kept the Shiv Sena factions on their toes — their battle for the party’s legacy and the mantle of the voice of Marathi manoos will be won or lost in Mumbai. This election has seen a revival of Marathi nativism, with Sena (UBT) accusing the ruling alliance of ignoring the state’s interests. That may well affect the BJP, which emerged as the largest party in Mumbai, in terms of both votes and seats in both the 2014 and 2019 assembly elections. To be sure, the party may benefit from the city’s large cosmopolitan vote, which may not be enthused about the privileging of nativist politics.

The political churn since 2019 has left many voters angry, cynical and bewildered as parties split, legislators shifted sides, and governance got subsumed by vicious politicking among leaders amid high food inflation. The BMC’s term ended in 2022, but in the absence of fresh elections, governance at the grassroots has suffered. The government tried to offset that by highlighting the mega infrastructure projects it has piloted in recent months. November 23, when the results come out, will show whether Mumbai’s voters continue to favour the BJP, like they did in 2014 and 2019, or whether the churn has made them change their preference.

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